【作者】 周晓贤；

【导师】 顾冲时； 吴中如；

【作者基本信息】 河海大学 ， 水工结构工程， 2002， 硕士

【摘要】 本文应用灰色系统理论，并结合数学、力学和坝工知识对大坝的变形状况、结构性态和安全状况进行了系统地分析和研究，提出了一些具有实际意义的大坝安全监控方面的新模型和新方法，其主要内容如下： 1．在研究分析了灰色系统理论建模的理论背景和几种常见的灰色模型的基础上，探讨了建立GM（1,N）模型的一般步骤，并建立了基于灰色关联度的较优的GM（1,N）模型。实例分析表明，该模型的精度要比逐步回归模型高。 2．针对SCGM(1，h）c模型在某些情况下精度较低的问题，提出了利用残差建立SCGM(1，h）c模型用于修正原模型的方法。研究表明，修正后的模型的精度比原模型有了较大的提高。 3．将大坝安全监控模型中的参数和实测数据均视为灰色，利用灰色系统方法对灰参数进行了辨识，并对大坝的监测效应量给出了灰色区间预报值。 4．基于控制论，建立了大坝坝顶位移和坝踵应力的灰色过程模型，并以此模型研究了大坝的结构性态。 5．利用灰色系统中的灰色聚类方法，并结合数学、力学知识，对大坝在各种荷载组合作用下的安全性态作了分评价。 6．基于灰色系统的基本理论，研究了用灰色聚类分析方法建立大坝监测物理量的预测模型。根据该模型，可以利用环境量来预测观测物理量，且效果较好。更多还原

【Abstract】 The Grey System Theory is applied to analyze the deformation condition, structure behavior and safety behavior of dams combined mathematics, mechanics and dam engineering knowledge. In this paper, some new effective models and methods are presented. The main contents are described as follows:1. On the basis of analyzing the theoretical background of grey models and current grey models, the procedure for building GM(1,N) Model is proposed. For it has some disadvantages, this model is improved by using correlative degrees. The study shows that the precision of the improved model is better than the stepwise regression model.2. Because the precision of SCGM(l,h)c Model is not satisfactory in some situations, the way of building SCGM(l,h)c Model utilizing residual error series is presented to correct the former SCGM(l,h)c Model. The merit of the improved model is revealed by the example in this paper.3. Both parameters and observed values are considered as grey in dam safety monitoring models. Grey parameters are identified by the means of the Grey System Theory and then forecasting values are given hi the format of grey interval.4. Based on the Control Theory, the Grey Process Model is built using the displacement of the dam crest and the stress of the dam heel, and the model can be used to analyze the structure behavior and stability of dams.5. Utilizing the grey clustering method, mathematics and mechanics knowledge, the safety states of dams under typical load combinations are analyzed and evaluated.6. Based on the grey clustering method, the forecasting model of dam safety monitoring values is built. By using the model, dam safety monitoring values can be forecasted by environmental values and the result is satisfactory.更多还原