【作者】 杨中华；

【导师】 宋德昌；

【作者基本信息】 武汉理工大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2002， 硕士

【摘要】 现代物流作为一种先进的组织方式和管理技术，被广泛认为是除了降低物资消耗、提高劳动生产率以外的重要利润源泉，在国民经济和社会发展中发挥着重要作用。随着物流重要性的凸现，物资调运作为物流不可或缺的环节的重要性也日益呈现出来。物资调运是社会化生产中的一个重要问题，它涉及到了生产、消费、配送等等各个方面。同时物资调运问题也是一个亟待优化的问题，本文拟在物资调运的模型优化与求解方面作一些有益的尝试。 进行物资调运的前提是物资的需求量的确定，因而物资需求的预测在物资调运中就显得尤为重要。由于影响物资需求的因素众多且有些难以规范化，单一的预测方法往往难以奏效，为此，本文引入了组合预测的思想。组合预测方法综合利用各种预测方法所提供的信息，避免单一模型丢失信息的缺憾，减少随机性，从而提高预测精度。 运输问题“悖论”是确定型运输问题中存在的“反常”现象，其根源在于运输问题模型的定义。针对运输问题“悖论”，论文提出了全新的运输问题的模型——变约束运输问题模型，并对变约束运输问题的求解方法进行了探讨。变约束运输问题模型的建立和求解，从根本上避免了确定型运输问题存在的“悖论”。 在需求预测和变约束运输模型研究基础上，针对大型的物资调运问题的实际情况，本文建立一个符合实际问题的变约束运输模型。该模型具有两个特点：首先，模型中的发量、收量均为变量，避免了运输问题中的“悖论”问题；其次模型中的中转点具有储存功能。在对该类问题进行了推广与简化之后，作者讨论其求解方法。 最后，在分析了物资调运系统的功能结构的基础上，作者建立了一个物资调运管理信息系统的原型框架。更多还原

【Abstract】 As an advanced organizes mode and management technology,modern logistics is considered as an important source of profit,except for reduction of material consumption and improvement of productivity. Along with appearance of the importance of logistics,the importance of material dispatching is emerging increasingly,which is the essential part of logistics. Material dispatching is an important problem,which relates to many aspects such as production,consumption,dispatching and so on. On the mean time it is desiderated to optimize. Some discussion is made in this paper on model optimization of material dispatching system.The precondition of material dispatching is that the demand is known,so demands prediction is a very important aspect in material dispatching. Because the influencing factor is multitudinous and difficult to standardize,single forecasting means is seldom successful. On the base of summary of forecasting means,combination forecasting is introduced in this paper. Combination forecasting colligates information of all kinds of forecasting method,so this method avoids losing information in single forecasting model and reduces randomcity,improves the precision of predication.Transportation paradox is the abnormal phenomena in transportation problem,and the reason lies on the definition. As the transportation paradox is concerned,a new transportation model is presented whose restriction is variable. On the basic,a new solution is put forward that can eliminate transportation paradox.According as the fact in a large-scale material dispatching system,a new transportation model is established,which has many characteristics listed below. Firstly,producers’ supply capabilities and consumers’ demands vary in a certain range. Secondly,relay station have it’s own storage. After generalization and simplification,the author discusses its solution.Finally,on the base of analysis of function and structure of the material dispatching system,a general prototype of material dispatching management information system is constructed.更多还原