【作者】 黄燕；

【导师】 金祖钧；

【作者基本信息】 江西财经大学 ， 产业经济学， 2002， 硕士

【摘要】 2001年11月10日，世界贸易组织(WTO)第四次部长级会议做出决定，接纳中国加入WTO。它意味着历经15年的奋争与期待，中国终于昂首跨入WTO大门!世界贸易组织与世界银行、国际货币基金组织并称为当今世界经济体制的“三大支柱”，中国的加入必将使其经济全球化进程更加有效和有力。同时，加入世界贸易组织对中国经济的影响也是方方面面的，总的来说是利大于弊、机遇大于挑战。而对一国经济的影响必然会影响到此国的就业，这也正是中国目前面临的一个非常严峻的问题，究竟入世后我国的就业问题会有什么变化，本文将对此进行分析。 全文共分为四个部分。 第一部分为“入世与中国经济”。一国的就业问题势必要从这国的经济状况中得到反映，而要探讨入世后我国就业问题的变化，必须首先分析入世对我国经济的影响。因此，本部分先从入世后中国可以享受的权利和必须履行的义务入手，以此为依据来分析入世对我国经济的影响。而入世对我国经济影响的分析是从两方面展开的：其一为入世对各行业的影响，这会对就业产生直接或短期的影响；其二为入世对整体经济的影响，这会对就业产生间接或长期的影响。 第二部分为“我国就业现状分析及趋势预测”。就业现状分为就业总量、就业素质、就业结构三方面。结合劳动供给和劳动需求进行分析，可以看出我国剩余劳动力数额庞大，主要包括新增劳动力、下岗人员及农村剩余劳动力，并且有继续增长的趋势；我国从业人员的主体部分为初中和小学学历，可见就业素质总体偏差，而且劳动力在质量上严重供不应求；就业结构的调整也有待进一步深化，体现在城镇从业人员所占比重需要进一步提高，劳动力产业结构配置不均衡的现象需要改善。这些问题的存在必然是有其原因的，本部分对此也进行了分析。 第三部分为“入世后我国就业问题的变化分析”，这是本文的核心部分，分别从就业总量、就业结构、就业素质及就业体制四方面进行分析。入世后由于贸易的增长、产业结构的调整、就业环境的完善、消费投资预期的改善，会对增加我国就业机会产生积极影响，但入世初期外企的进人和货物、服务进口的转移效应等会导致国内就业机会的减少，但并不会带来新一轮的失业高峰；从长期来看，入世会促进我国就业结构合理化和产业结构优化：第一产业就业机会有较大幅度减少，第二产业内行业的就业结构会发生重大的调整，就业机会有增有减，增减相抵，总量增加，第三产业面临新的发展机遇， 必就业机会有望大量增加。而入世初期，我国经济必然出现更大规模的结构调整，不同领域劳动力供求不平衡的就业结构矛盾将会比较突出；入世会增加对我国高素质人才的需求，并使得其供小于求的结构性矛盾显得比较突出，不可避免对某些行业会造成大量的人才流失，但同时也会促使我国人才的优化配置；我国现行劳动就业体制由于劳动力市场发育不健全、劳动力流动存在严重制度障碍、缺乏有效的就业服务及失业人员生活保障机制等，难以适应入世后的新形势、新要求，需要进行完善和变革。 第四部分为“入世后我国就业问题对策建议”。面对入世后我国就业可能出现的问题，我们应清醒认识到这并不源于“入世”战略本身，而是我国就业总量矛盾、结构矛盾及体制矛盾长期积累的结果。因此，不能讳疾忌医，将“入世”视为劳动就业市场化及建立长期稳定就业机制的唯一契机，而应从更深的层次上研究对策。本部分首先对西方失业理论进行了简单介绍：凯恩斯学派“有效需求不足”的失业理论与需求管理政策、新古典综合学派的“结构性失业”理论与人力政策、货币学派的“自然失业率”理论与供给管理政策、新凯恩斯主义的工资粘性理论与就业对策，再对发达国家解决失业问题的主要措施进行分析。在上述二者基础上本部分提出我国应在促进经济增长、提高就业；弹性而大量创造就业机会的基础上对入世后可能出现的就业问题采取针对性的策略，如：加强教育和职业培训、清除体制障碍、推进劳动力结构性转移、加强法制建设、规范劳资关系和大力发展境外就业等。更多还原

【Abstract】 On 10 November 2001, The WTO(World Trade Organization)’s Fourth Ministerial Conference approved by consensus the text of the agreement for China’s entry into the WTO. It meaned that China became a full member, the WTO’s 143rd, after fifteen years’ struggle and expectation. WTO^ WB(World Bank) and IMF(International Monetary Foundation) are called "the three backbone" of nowaday world economy system. China’s entry will inevitably enhance the progress of economy globality of the WTO. At the same time, impact of entry into the WTO upon China economy should be considered from all aspects, in a word: opportunities more than challenges. It is undoubted that impact upon the economy of a country will work on its employment which China has to face seriously. What are on earth the changes of employment problems after China’s entry into the WTO? The article will work over it.The article consists of four parts.Part one is "Entry into the WTO and China economy". The employment problems of a country can be reflected from its economy condition, so firstly we must analyze the impact of entry into the WTO upon China’s economy before research on employment problems. The part begins with the rights and duties after China’s entry into the WTO which are the proofs to analyze the impact upon China’s economy divided into two aspects. One is "Impact of China’s entry into the WTO upon all the industries", which will have direct and long influences on employment. The other is "Impact of China’s entry into the WTO upon economy as a whole", which will have indirect and short influences on employment.Part two is "Analysis of employment actualities in China and trend forecast". Employment actualities are employment amount , employment makings and employment structure. From the analysis of employment supply combined with employment demand, we can draw a conclusion that there is a huge surplus of labor force in our country with the trend of continuous increase which mainly comprises newly-supplemented labor force ^ lay-off workers and rural surplus labor force; The employees of our country are mostly from elementary and junior high school, they have so poor knowledge that they can’t catch up with the economy development; Employment structure should be improved also, because the percent of the employees in town is not high enough and the industry structure of labor force is not in equilibrium. Besides, the cause of these problems is also referred to in this part.Part three is "Analysis of changes in employment problems of China after entry into the WTO", the core part of the article. It is spreaded from four aspects: employmentamount , employment structure , employment makings and employment system. Because of increase in trade N adjustment of industry structure , perfection of employment surroundings and improvement in anticipation of consumption and investment, employment opportunity will be much better than before. In spite of decrease in employment amount at the beginning of entry into the WTO due to ingress of foreign enterprises and imports of goods and services, a new unemployment fastigium will not appear. In long periods, both employment and industry structure will be rationalized and optimized after entry into the WTO: the employment amount in the first industry will be reduced sharply, the employment structure in the second industry will be regulated greatly梕mployment amount will be added after counteraction of increase and decrease, the employment amount in the third industry may have a large increase because of good development opportunities. But initially after entry into the WTO, conflict between supply and demand of labor force in different fields will be more outstanding. The demand for persons with high quality will rise after entry into the WTO, which will ineluctably lead to job-hopping in some industries but also can enhance the optimizationof allocation of person resource. The current employment system of our country does not match with new position and requirements after entry into the WTO by reason of i更多还原