【作者】 赵峰；

【导师】 赵秉栋； 千怀遂； 秦明周；

【作者基本信息】 河南大学 ， 自然地理学， 2002， 硕士

【摘要】 大气中温室气体浓度的增加将导致全球气候变化，这是近年来气候数值模拟研究得出的主要结论。气候变化必将给社会经济各方面带来许多新问题。农业是国民经济的基础和可持续发展的根本保证。位于亚热带北界和我国西部山地与黄淮海平原交接带附近的河南省，人口众多，经济落后，农业在整个社会经济发展中的地位和作用尤为突出，因此开展气候变化对河南省农业生产的影响及相应的应对措施研究具有重要的理论意义和实用价值。 基于以上考虑，本文运用农业气象学、农业生态学和统计学等基础理论和方法，在数据库软件Microsoft Access、数据处理软件Microsoft Excel和统计分析软件SPSS的技术支持下，对河南省冬小麦40年以来的气候适宜性变化进行了定性与定量研究。根据冬小麦各生育期适宜度大小和年际波动强弱找出气候关键期，在此基础上分析了1980年前后两个时段降水、温度和光照关键期的变动。 1、运用模糊数学方法，结合河南省冬小麦生理生态特征建立了旬温度适宜度函数，旬光照适宜度函数和旬降水适宜度函数，它们的函数形式分别为： 式中T，S，R为冬小麦生育期间各旬的温度、光照和降水观测值。考虑到不同生育期气候条件对作物生长影响强度的客观差异，各生育期及全生育期适宜度的计算应首先给各旬适宜度赋予不同权重。目前，确定权重的方法主要有专家咨询法、相关系数法和因子分析法等。本文运用相关系数法设定每个生育期内各旬的权重，运用因子分析法设计全生育期20个旬的权重。冬小麦的生长发育过程受光温水的共同影响，为反映其气候适宜性变化，必须模拟三因子的协同效应，因此本文采用几何平均法计算同期光温水的综合气候适宜度。因为几何平均法既能反映极端情况，又能刻划因子间的相互补偿作用。对10个代表站点的适宜度计算结果与小麦气象产量的相关分析发现，两者间的相关性极为显著，说明用这种方法模拟作物气候适宜性变化是合理可行的。 2、河南省冬小麦气候适宜性季节变化。运用建立的气候适宜度模型对各旬适宜度计算发现，河南省冬小麦全生育期气候适宜度变化呈“ V”字型，即越冬前后气候条件对小麦的限制作用最强。但由于20世纪80年代以来的全球冬季温度的普遍升 t高，拔节期间冬小麦适宜性有所提高。为了说明河南省冬小麦全生育期适宜度过程的空间差异，遵循各地区地形、地貌、气候等自然条件的区域差异性原则，对全省冬小麦种植区进行了分区对比。 3、河南省冬小麦气候适宜性年际变化。全生育期冬小麦气候适宜度对比发现，降水适宜度波动最强；温度适宜度与气候适宜度波动均较小，且20世纪80年代以来振幅明显变小。从变化倾向来看，温度、光照和气候适宜度分别以 0刀03／l oa，0刀05八 和 0．006／10a的速度升高，降水适宜度以 0刀02八 的速率降低。各生育期三因子及其组合的累积距平变化反映了不同生育时段气候因子对冬小麦生长的作用大小及其趋势变动。分析发现，受近年来全球变暖的影响，小麦拔节期温度与降水适宜度明显提高。气候、温度和降水适宜度全省有70％以上的地区表现为逐年升高，超过60％的地区降水适宜度是降低的，平均降幅为0．002／10a。不同区域气候适宜度大小、波动及其变化倾向有较明显的差异，存在经向和纬向的规律性变化。 4、作物气候关键期的确定有很多方法，如特定生育期作物对某气候因于最佳生理需求量与实际观测值的对比分析；特定时期某气候因子对作物生长造成危害的发生频率；作物产量与不同生育期某气候因子的多元回归方程中的影响系数的比较等。本文结合冬小麦不同生育期气候适宜度的计算结果，认为可依据某气候因于适宜度的大小与其年际波动的综合效应大小挑选出此因子的关键期。为此，引入气候风险度的概念及其计算公式，并用之确定河南省冬小麦 1980年前后的温度、降水和光照关键期，对比两个时段的气候关键期发现，1980年以来河南省冬小麦气候关键期发生了较大变动。更多还原

【Abstract】 The increase of the density of greenhouse gas will cause global climate change, This is a main conclusion in research of numerical simulation of weather in recent years. Climate change will bring a lot of new problems to different social economy fields. Agriculture is the foundation of the national economy and basic assurance of sustainable development. Lies in the north circles of subtropical zone and the boundary between Huanghuaihai plain and western mountainous region of our country, Henan Provinces has a large population, Its economy is backward. Consequently, the position and function of agriculture in the whole social economic development are particularly protrusive, So it has important theory meaning and practical value to study the impact of climate change on agricultural production of Henah Province and corresponding counter-measure.Based on the above consideration, using basic theories and method, such as agricultural meteorology, agricultural ecology and statistics, etc., Under the technical support of software Microsoft Access of data base, data processing software Microsoft Excel and statistical analysis software SPSS, this dissertation has carried on qualitative and quantitative research to the climate suitability change of winter wheat in Henan Province in resent 40 years. Thereunder the suitability degree and its fluctuation of every growth stage, it has also analyzed the precipitation, temperature and sunbeam key period’s change of pre-1980 and after-1980.K Using fuzzy mathematics, the ten-day temperature suitability function, the ten-day precipitation suitability function, the ten-day sunbeam suitability function was set up by combining with the physiology ecological characteristic of winter wheat in Henan Province, their function form is respectively:In the above function, T, S, R refers to the ten-day temperature, sunbeam and precipitation observed value during the whole growth stage of winter wheat. Consider the objective difference of weather conditions’ influence intensity on crop’s growing within different growth stages, the suitability degree of every growth stage or the whole growth stage must be the sum of product between the ten-day suitability degree and its weight. At present, there are many methods that determines the weight, such as Expert Consulting, Correlation Analysis, Factor Analytic approach, etc. This dissertation use correlation analysis settling weight for each ten-day to every growth stage, Use the factor analytic approach designing weight for 20ten-days. Because the process of winter wheat growing is affected by temperature, sunbeam and precipitation jointly, the cooperative intention of the three factors must be stimulated in order to mirror its climate suitability change, therefore this dissertation adopt geometric average law to calculate the comprehensive climate suitability degree. Because the law of geometric average can reflect the extreme situation, at the same time can also delineate the compensation function each other among the factors . By correlating with meteorological output of winter wheat and the calculating results of climate suitability degree to 10 representative stations it found that the dependence between them is extremely remarkable, this proved that it is rational and feasible to use this kind of method simulating climate suitability change of crops.2. After calculating suitability degree of every ten-day by using the climate suitability model, we found the climate suitability change of winter wheat in Henan Province appears like the figure of English letter "V", namely the restriction of winter weather on wheat’s surviving is very strong. But because temperature rose generally in the whole world winter since the eighties of the 20th century, The climate suitability degree of winter wheat improved to some extent during jointing stage. In order to illustrate spatial differences of the climate suitability change in the whole growth stage of winter wheat in Henan Province, following the regional difference quality principle in natur更多还原