【作者】 左友东；

【导师】 徐国盛； 刘树根；

【作者基本信息】 成都理工大学 ， 矿产普查与勘探， 2002， 硕士

【摘要】 含油气盆地勘探多方案决策属于风险型决策。传统的含油气盆地勘探决策评价方法实质是把风险型决策近似为确定性决策来处理，故不能得到决策指标的概率分布，不利于反映决策的风险，从而影响决策的客观性。本文采用蒙特卡罗法对含油气盆地勘探多方案决策进行模拟。蒙特卡罗法的特点是利用各种不同分布的随机变量的抽样序列模拟给定问题的概率模型，给出问题数值解的渐进统计估计值，其实质就是应用随机数技术进行模拟计算。该方法能够更加精细的处理风险型决策，对模拟最终指标的每一个可能区间都能够以确定的概率来表示，能对决策者提供更客观精细的评价指标。 过去受计划经济体制的影响，经济评价工作带有浓厚的计划经济色彩。中国的原油价格曾长期低于国际市场原油价格，由国家制定计划价格。中国已经大量进口原油，市场经济的步伐也越来越快，对国际石油市场的依赖越来越大，与国际接轨是大势所趋。作者采用国际市场原油价格作为含油气盆地勘探多方案决策蒙特卡罗模拟系统的参数，即以某一段时期国际市场原油价格做出概率分布函数，以更为准确的进行决策评价。 根据现行的税率制度，作者推导出了蒙特卡洛模拟的净现金流量公式。通过净现金流量可以计算出财务内部收益率，投资回收期，财务净现值等经济决策指标。根据含油气盆地勘探的特点，设计了含油气盆地勘探多方案决策蒙特卡洛模拟系统的模型，并按照模型的步骤采用C++BUILDER5实现。 以羌塘盆地为实际算例，具体描述了模拟的整个过程，得到了各年净现金流量，累计净现金流量，财务净现值等经济决策指标的概率分布函数和累计概率分布函数，并对羌塘盆地的三个大规模勘探方案作了比较，使用层次分析法对比较结果作了修正。 通过含油气盆地勘探多方案决策系统蒙特卡洛模拟系统的设计，实现与测试，在含油盆地勘探决策方法上提出了新的思路，在一定程度上克服了传统含油气盆地勘探决策方法的弊端。更多还原

【Abstract】 Multi-scheme decision-making in the exploration of petroliferous basins is the risk-decision-making. Decision-maker cannot traditionally get the probability and the risk of decision-making results in untrue objectivity of decision-making, because the traditional methods of decision-making used risk-decision-making as determination-decision-making in fact.The present paper has simulated multi-scheme decision-making of exploration in Oil and Gas Bearing Basins with the method of Monte Carlo. The characteristics of the method of Monte Carlo are to get the probability model with different random variable, which can solve the risk-decision-making elaborately and provide the objective judge of guideline.Because of planned economy, the price of crude oil in China was less then the price of international market for a long term. With the rapid step of market economy, our country has imported plenty of crude oil. The author adopted the price of crude oil in international market as the parameter of Monte Carlo system of multi-scheme decision-making of exploration in oil and gas bearing basins because the price in international market is more reasonable than the planed price.The author deduced the formula of net cash flow for the simulation of Monte Carlo with the current tax rate system. According to the characteristics of exploration in oil and gas Bearing Basins, the author designed the model of multi-scheme decision-making of exploration in Oil and Gas Bearing Basins with the method of Monte Carlo and finished the concrete content of model by C++ Builder 5.The paper described the whole procedure of simulation and gained the probability of net cash flow, accumulative net cash flow and financial net cash. The author compared the first exploration scheme with others and revised the result bythe method of Analytical Hierarchy Process.The author put forward the new idea of method of multi-scheme decision-making of exploration in oil and gas bearing basins by design, realization and test of multi-scheme decision-making of exploration in oil and gas bearing basins with the method of Monte Carlo. The method overcomes the disadvantage of traditional method at a certain extent.更多还原