【作者】 孙宁；

【导师】 李守义； 袁维桢；

【作者基本信息】 西安理工大学 ， 水工结构工程， 2002， 硕士

【摘要】 随着我国经济的飞速发展，房地产开发日益活跃，展现在人们眼前的往往是房地产活动蓬勃、盈利丰厚的一面。但是，对于任何一项投资活动，风险总是于之相伴，在很大程度上受到风险因素左右，风险一旦发生就可能使开发商蒙受巨大的损失，甚至导致破产。 因此，重视并研究房地产开发中的风险因素是理论界、实业界所面临的重要问题。本文从开发商的角度出发对我国房地产开发中的风险因素进行分析。指出房地产开发中存在的主要风险因素，对这些风险因素进行了分类的分析，并对其中开发商所关注集中的市场供求风险、资金变化风险、融资风险、房地产政策变化风险以及开发商在理论上还未意识到且在前人的研究中未出现过的审批过程进行了较为深入的探讨。通过建立风险因素的层次分析模型、索取专家数据，计算得出我国房地产开发中风险因素的权重，依据权重分布对风险因素进行了排序和分类，从而为开发商在对风险因素的认识上提供科学的依据。 由于风险因素在不同项目类型中其权重有可能会发生变化，因此在调查研究的基础上本文第五章对普通住宅、高档住宅、写字楼、商业用房、厂房仓库等不同类型风险因素的权重与排序做了进一步的计算和分析，指出其中一些风险因素权重所发生的相对变化，进而为开发商对风险因素的认识提供了更加客观的数据依据，同时指出开发商在不同类型的开发中应注意的问题。在此基础上结合目前开发商风险规避不足的现状，提出了针对开发商风险规避措施的建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the rapid economic grouth in China, the market of real estate is enlivened. People are confronted with the high interests as well as high risk which influence the whole real estate developing avtivities. Once these risk factors take into effect, some developers may stand at the edge of bankrupt.Therefore, risk analysis is an important task factors in the real estate development in China were analysed in the article with major factors pointed out and classified too. This article focuses on risk in market demanding and supplying, risk in liquidity, risk in funds circulation ,risk in real estate policy and risk in rent setting and seeking. By AHP model and the statistics from specialists, the weights of the risk factors in the field of real estate were worked out, then the factors in order of weights distribution were classified and arranged. So the results can be offered to Chinese real estate developers as a quantity reference on risk factors.Due to the weights of risk factors may change according to different projects, the fifth part of this paper further calculated the weights according to ordinary dewelling house, high-grade dewelling house (including the villa and the apartment), office building, business building, industry building and store house. The relation changes of weights were analysed, which may provide developers more objective quantity foundation, mean which developers should consider carefully. This paper is also aimed at insufficient consciousness of risk in real estate development, it proposes the suggestions on risk avoiding.更多还原