【作者】 梁昉；

【导师】 郑少智；

【作者基本信息】 暨南大学 ， 统计学， 2001， 硕士

【摘要】 本文主要是作者在广东电信科学技术研究院实习期间的一个总结。 广东电信，是隶属于中国电信集团公司下的全资子公司。它具备六大分类业务：公众服务、长途电话、本地电话、电话卡、数据多媒体和网元服务。长途电话是其中重要的一类传统业务。电信拥有全国第一的固定网络系统，但是电信业改革和开放的今天，广东电信传统的固定长话面临内部和外部的激烈竞争。广东电信内部，数据多媒体（包括IP）、卡类业务等新业务对传统固定长话带来冲击；广东电信外部，有联通、移动、吉通、网通、铁通等强大对手的市场威胁。在这种形势下，分析研究广东电信自身传统固定长话业务，指明其发展变化的趋势和应对策略，显得十分迫切和重要。 本文正是从这一点出发，研究广东电信传统固定长话业务，分析其现状和发展趋势，指明竞争对手在长话市场上的表现，提出对策建议。 全文分为四章： 第一章为业务简介，介绍广东电信传统固定长话业务的种类和界定范围。 第二章为影响因素分析，从经济形势、资费、新业务、竞争对手等方面着手，分析它们对传统固定长话的影响。 第三章为广东电信传统固定长话业务的三年预测。具体采用时间序列方法和专家预测法，从定量和定性方面对传统固定长话业务作预测。 第四章提出对策和建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 The article is a conclusion of the period working in Guangdong Telecommunication Academy of Science and Technology. CHINA TELECOM is an important representation in the structure of the China抯 telecommunications industry. As the primary telecommunications enterprise, having been strongly supported by the state, CHINA TELECOM has made brilliant achievements. Its network scale, technology level and service quality have jumped to a higher level. Long Distant Services of Fixed Phone, as one of the major services of CHINA TELECOM in Guangdong, has made important contributions to all the enterprise. Encountering ever increasing market competitions at home and abroad as well as ever increasing consumption requirements of new services and new products, such as IP phone, Calling Cards, CHINA TELECOM is undertaking heavy tasks for development and reform. To reach the goal, I suggest some counter measurements to narrow the gap. The emphasis of the researches is the behavior in the Long Distant Service of Fixed Phone and applying the counter measurements to the development. This article consists of four chapters: Chapter One: Introduce. In which simply explains the significance of Long Distant Service of Fixed Phone. Chapter Two: Some factors affecting the behavior of Long Distant Service of Fixed Phone. This section analyses the effect caused by macroeconomics, price, new technology, market competitions and WTO affects. Chapter Three: Forcasting the behavior of the Long Distant Service of Fixed Phone in Guangdong Province. Chapter Four: Counter measurements. Based on the above analysis, I suggest some of the counter measurements to develop.更多还原