【作者】 童媛媛；

【导师】 许圣道；

【作者基本信息】 郑州大学 ， 国民经济学， 2013， 硕士

【摘要】 国际上通常认为65岁以上老年人口占总人口7%以上或60岁以上老年人口占总人口10%以上作为衡量人口老龄化的标准。2011年,河南省65岁以上老年人口占总人口的8.6%,根据国际划分标准河南省已经进入老龄化社会。据相关资料预测,2050年河南省65岁及以上老龄人口将达2835万人,老年人口将呈爆炸式增长。河南省人口老龄化形势将会越来越严峻,人口老龄化对我省社会经济生活的影响也越来越明显。人口老龄化是把双刃剑,对河南省经济发展带来负面影响的同时也为我省经济发展带来了机遇。本文针对河南省老龄化对经济发展的影响进行了研究,以期研究成果有利于经济政策的制定,促进我省经济长期健康发展。本文在国内外人口老龄化研究的基础上,详细介绍了河南省人口老龄化的现状、特点,并采用灰色预测模型预测了河南省2012—2022年的人口年龄结构。通过对预测结果分析得出我省1564岁的劳动年龄人口数量下降较快,少年儿童数量虽在增加但增幅较小,老年人口不断增加,老龄化程度不断加深。其次,采用计量模型定量分析了人口老龄化与经济发展间的关系,通过模型分析得出长期内,河南省经济增长与人口老龄化间存在均衡关系,短期内,人口老龄化、经济增长及人口自然增长率三者之间相互作用相互影响。本文还论证了人口老龄化不仅增加社会养老保障负担、对劳动力供给及劳动产生率产生负面影响,而且还会对我省产业结构产生一定影响。在系统剖析河南省人口老龄化影响的基础上本文从发展河南省经济、建立完善的医疗和养老保障体制、开发低龄老年人力资源和积极发展老龄产业等几个方面给出了应对我省老龄化合理的、有针对性的建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 More than7%of the total population older than65years or more than10%of the total population older than60years is the standard measure of an aging population. In2011,8.6%of the elderly population in the total population in Henan Province over the age of65.According to the international criteria for the classification, Henan Province has entered the aging society. According to the forecast, the aging population over65years will reach2835people by2050; the elderly population will show explosive growth in Henan Province. The situation of the aging population will become more critical. The impact of population aging on social and economic life in our province has become increasingly evident.Population aging is a double-edged sword. It will have a negative impact on the economic development of Henan Province; however, it also will bring opportunities for the economic development. This article studies the aging effect of Henan Province on the economic development. The research is conducive to economic policy-making, and promotes long-term healthy development of the economy in our province.On the basis of the domestic and foreign population aging research, this article described the status and characteristics of Population Aging in Henan, and used Gray Forecast Model to predict the population age structure in2012-2022.By prediction results this article analyzed aged15-64working-age population will decrease rapidly, however, the number of children will have a smaller increase, the elderly population will increasing, the degree of aging continues to deepen. Secondly, the use of econometric models quantitative analysis of the relationship between the aging of the population and economic development. According to the result, between economic growth and the aging of the population in Henan Province have an equilibrium relationship in long-term,In short term, the aging of the population, economic growth and the natural population growth rate affect each other. This article further argues that the aging of the population not only increases the burden of Social Security, has a negative impact on labor supply and labor production rate, but also a certain impact on the province’s industrial structure. Based on the analysis of the aging population in Henan Province, this article gives some reasonable and targeted recommendations to deal with the aging problem. Such as develop the economy of Henan Province, establish and improve the health and pension security system, exploit younger elderly resources and positive development of the industry for the elderly and other aspects.更多还原