【作者】 胡琳琳；

【导师】 张炎亮；

【作者基本信息】 郑州大学 ， 工业工程（专业学位）， 2013， 硕士

【摘要】 随着我国经济的飞速发展,煤炭的需求日益增长,煤矿的生产任务不断增加,煤矿安全问题也变得尤为突出。近年来,我国的煤矿事故死亡人数一直高居世界之首,究其原因除了我国煤矿的基础安全设施薄弱、人员安全意识差之外,还与我们对煤矿安全管理的预警工作开展缓慢有关。煤矿的地理特点致使其在事故救援方面存在诸如破坏程度大、应急救援困难等不利因素,但与其他的煤矿事故不同,如果能提前预测煤矿突发水灾害,可以采取排水降压、预留煤柱等防治措施避免突水事故的发生或者减小其造成的损失。煤矿突发水灾害预警系统能够通过科学的手段和方法预测突水事故,降低突水事故的发生频率,减少煤矿人员伤亡,提高企业经济效益,提升政府在公众心目的形象,具有较高的经济和社会效益。目前,能够在企业中实际运用的煤矿突发水灾害预警系统较少,对此的研究大都停留在理论阶段,实用性需要进一步改进。本文提出煤矿突发水灾害预警系统的设计,其主要包括数据监测和预测两个重要模块和用户管理、数据查询、事后信息录入三个辅助模块。文章首先以煤矿突发水灾害机理为基础,分析突水的主要影响因素,建立煤矿突发水灾害预警系统的监测指标体系,并运用Access数据库、VB,设计煤矿突发水灾害预警系统的登陆、数据输入、查询与用户管理界面。其次通过对煤矿突发水灾害常规算法的对比分析,选择BP神经网络集成模型建立煤矿突发水灾害预测模型,并根据突水量与矿井最大排水量间的关系,对煤矿突发水灾害进行等级划分,确定预警界限值,将matlab、Access数据库和VB相结合,设计煤矿突发水灾害预警系统的预测、预报和事后信息录入界面。最后通过对平顶山X.煤矿考察和监测,选取该矿4个点作为监测点,将数据输入预警系统,根据预警系统的输出做出相应措施,验证了煤矿突发水灾害系统的可操作性与适用性，能够为企业监测突发水灾害可能性,将突发水灾害事故扼杀于萌芽,降低事故发生频率和企业安全生产成本,提高企业的经济和社会效益。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the rapid development of China’s economy, growing demand for coal and increasing coal production task, the safety problem of coal mine has become particularly prominent. In recent years, the death toll of China’s coal mine accident has been ranked first in the world, not only the basis of safety facilities are inadequate for China’s coal mine, and staff safety awareness is poor, but also our early warning of coal mine safety management is carried out with a slow pace. The accident rescue has unfavorable factors such as the extent of the damage, emergency rescue difficulties, because of Geographical characteristics of the coal. But it is different from other coal mine accidents, if the water disaster of coal mine can be predicted in advance, water drainage, setting aside coal pillar and other preventive measures can be used to avoid water inrush or reduce the losses caused. Coal mine water disaster emergency warning system can forecast water inrush, reduce the frequency of occurrence of water inrush, reduce coal mine casualties, improve the economic efficiency of enterprises and the government’s destination image in the public heart. So it has high economic and social benefits. Currently, less coal mine water disaster emergency warning system is capable of practical application in the enterprise, this study most remain in the realm of theory, applicability needs to improve further.This paper puts forward the view to design a water disaster emergency warning system for coal mine. It includes two important modules and three auxiliary modules. Two important modules are data monitoring and prediction, three auxiliary modules are user management, data query and after the information into. Firstly the monitoring indicators are built based on analysis of the main factors of mine water-related disasters, and the Access database and VB are used to design landing, data entry, query and the user management interface for coal mine.Secondly, based on the comparative analysis on the conventional algorithm to predict coal mine burst water-related disasters, the BP neural network integrated model is selected, and the warning threshold value are determined according to the relationship between the maximum displacement of the water inrush and mine coal burst water-related disasters. The forecasts and ex post information input interface are designed by matlab, Access database and VB.Finally, the Pingdingshan X coal is selected to be a sample for the paper. Data of four monitoring points is enter into the early warning system, and the appropriate measures are made in accordance with the output of the early warning system, to verify the operability and suitability for the system. The system can be used to monitor the possibility of water inrush, nip water inrush, reduce the enterprise safety production costs, and improve the economic and social benefits.更多还原