【作者】 崔俊飞；

【导师】 郭进；

【作者基本信息】 西南交通大学 ， 交通信息工程及控制， 2013， 硕士

【摘要】 随着高速铁路的蓬勃发展,原来基于技术规章制度来保障行车安全的管理方法,越来越没办法满足日益增长的安全管理需求。铁道部办公厅于2012年在全路推行安全风险管理,列控中心作为列控系统地面信号控制的关键系统,对其进行风险分析显得尤为重要。风险分析包括危害识别和风险估计两个过程。本文首先通过对列控中心的组成结构、功能需求、工作状态进行分析,对应建立了列控中心的参考模型、功能分层模型和状态转移模型,然后依照HAZOP方法,对这三种类型模型依次进行分析节点、要素、设计意图、引导词和发生原因的分析,得出其危害日志表,并对状态转移模型中的非正常状态进行半马尔可夫过程分析。通过对顺序图基本语法和基于XYZ/E的顺序图语义进行定义,对描述语言进行逻辑求反运算,可以识别出程序执行过程中的危害。以轨道电路编码为例,将其识别出的危害与HAZOP方法得出的结果进行对比,表明该方法识别结果更为全面。为对识别出的危害进行风险估计,本文借鉴欧洲铁路行业标准中的频率等级划分方法,并结合我国相关法规对事故严重等级的划分原则,建立了6×5风险矩阵。进一步运用模糊综合评判方法,构建了我国铁路信号系统后果严重度评价的因素集和评判集,对评判中用到的权重先采用模糊聚类分析先得出专家集中权重,再结合专家打分计算出因素权重,并以站内轨道电路编码错误的危害进行实例分析。最后,结合专家打分法得出的频率等级,依据风险矩阵,得出危害风险等级。基于以上的风险估计方法,在VC++6.0平台上完成了列控中心风险估计系统的初步研发,以期用于数量较大的危害事件的风险估计计算。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the rapid development of high-speed railway, originally based on the technical rules and regulations to ensure the traffic safety management methods, more and no way to meet the growing demand for safety management.In2012, General Office of the Ministry of Railways carried out a safety risk management within the whole railway.TCC as a critical system in Train Control System’s ground signal control systems, it’s obviously important to do risk analysis for it.Risk analysis including hazard identification and risk estimation process. Firstly, by the analysis of the composition of the Train Control Center, functional requirements and work status, we establish a reference model of the Train Control Center, features hierarchical model and the state transition mode. Use the HAZOP analysis method analyze nodes, elements, design intent, guide words and the causes,then come to the hazard log.And we analyze the abnormal state of state transition model by semi-Markov process.Based on the definition of basic syntax of sequence diagram and XYZ/E semantics, the paper come up with one kind of hazard identification method that based on the sequence diagram’s XYZ/E semantics description. And illustrated by the example of track circuit coding, the paper compare its hazard with the result of HAZOP method’s show that the method’s result is more comprehensive.For the risk assessment of identified hazards,this paper drawing on the European railway industry standard’s frequency classification method and combine with the China’s relevant laws and regulations of the accident severity principle of the division, then establish a6×5risk matrix for risk estimating. Further this paper use the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to build the factors set and evaluation set of the serious consequence of China’s railway signaling system. The paper analyze the experts’concentrated weight used in the assessment,and combine with expert scoring calculated factor weight, then analyze the station track circuit coding errors hazard as an example. At last, combine with the level of the frequency from expert scoring method, it come to the final level of the risk level with the use of risk matrix.Take advantage of the risk assessment method introduced above, this paper completed the Train Control Center Risk Assesment System’s initial research and development inVC++6.0platform,in order for a larger number of tasks.更多还原