【作者】 佟鑫；

【导师】 李远富；

【作者基本信息】 西南交通大学 ， 道路与铁道工程， 2013， 硕士

【摘要】 长期以来,安全运输都是铁路系统永恒的主题,伴随着我国经济、技术、综合实力的日益提高,铁路事业也得到了突飞猛进的发展,目前正朝着高速度、高密度、高载重、高技术的方向发展,这给保证铁路运营的安全提出了新的挑战,尤其是在我国西部山区,地形地质复杂、自然环境比较脆弱,高速铁路的建设、运营、救援难度更大,使得铁路运输安全保障系统面临着更多新的需求和严峻的挑战。因此加强铁路安全预警理论与方法的研究,无论对于保证铁路运营的安全,还是对于提高其经济效益社会效益,促进铁路事业安全高效、可持续的发展,都具有巨大的理论和现实意义。本文根据困难艰险山区高速铁路安全运输的需要,以中国中铁股份有限公司科技开发计划的工程科研项目“困难艰险山区高速铁路救援系统研究”为依托,主要开展以下几个方面的研究工作：首先,分析我国铁路事业的发展现状,提出加强铁路运营安全管理工作的迫切需求,需要构建一个合理有效的安全预警系统。对国内外安全预警系统的理论和应用情况展开研究,对比、总结分析出我国安全管理工作的不足。针对此问题,提出本文的主要的研究内容和技术路线。其次,重点研究困难艰险山区的地形地貌、环境、经济、交通发展现状,高速铁路的特点、安全状态以及易发的安全事故,提出安全预警系统设计的原则、依据、理论架构以及操作流程。在安全风险识别子系统中,抓住铁路行车事故致因的本质,从人—机—环境—管理系统的角度,阐述铁路事故发生的原因,建立一个安全评价指标体系。在安全预警评价子系统中,创新性的使用粗糙集改进的模糊综合评价法高效准确的完成安全评价工作。在安全预警判别子系统中,合理的划分预警的区间,并借鉴“天气预报”的报警形式,选择直观的预警方式输出报警信号从而给相关部门做出指示以选择正确的预警对策。最后,以西部铁路贵广线铁路为例,针对隧道火灾事故,将所设计的理论模型应用到困难艰险山区高速铁路运营的安全管理工作中去,实现了本理论设计使用价值。更多还原

【Abstract】 For a long time, Safety is the eternal theme in railway transportation system, With the rapid development of national economy,technology and comprehensive strength, railway undertaking has got rapid development.Nowdays,it is on the way to be high speed, high density, high load and high technology, so there are new challenges on railway safety problems, especially in the western mountains. Due to the physical feature is perplexed and the physical environment is easily hurt,it is more difficult for railway building, operating, saveing,So the safety system of railway transport is facing more and more new demands and challenges. Therefore,.no matter to guarantee the safety of railway operation,or to improve it’s economic benefit and social benefit, to promote the progress of railway efficient and sustainablely,it is worth of great theory and realistic meaning that strengthening the Studing on the theory and method of the risk warning system of railway traffic.According to the need of safe transport on High Speed Railway in difficult Mountainous, relying on the scientific research project of China Railway Group Limited "the research of high speed railway rescue system",there are crarrying out the researching of work as following:Firstly, this thesis Analysised the current situation of Chinese railway industry,put forward the active demand of strengthening railway safety management.Researching on the Theory and application of risk warning system, contrasted and Analysised the shortage in our country’s safety management work. Aiming at this problem,this thesis puts forward the main researching contents and technical route.Then, this thesis puts more efforts into the physical feature,environment,economy,and the Current situation of the traffic development,the characteristics,safety and accidents of high-speed railway.puts out the the principle, theoretical framework and operation process of designing of risk warning system. In the risk identification subsystem, Seizeing the innate character of the reason of railway traffic accidents, in the view of the person-machine-environment system, explain the reason of railway accident, establish a safety evaluation index system.in the risk evaluation subsystem, innovatively using the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method improved by rough set to realize evaluation efficiently and accurately. In the risk warning discrimination subsystem and risk warning countermeasure subsystem, it divises the the range of risk warning reasonably, learning from the eather forecast, warns by outputting signal intuitionally and guides the relevant departments to select the correct warning countermeasures.Finally, As the Western Railway "passenger line of Guiyang-Guangzhou" as an example, in connection with the tunnel fire accidents, in order to realize the useful value, it applied the model of safety management of high speed railway in the mountain area to the using.更多还原