【作者】 赵婷；

【导师】 岳立；

【作者基本信息】 兰州大学 ， 区域经济学， 2013， 硕士

【摘要】 20世纪以来,气候变化及其随之引起的碳减排问题受到各国专家学者持续的关注,节能减排已成为中国调整经济结构、转变发展方式的重要手段。低碳农业是低碳经济的重要组成部分,世界各国对其研究日益增多。中国作为养活子世界四分之一人口的农业大国,发展低碳农业势在必行。本文以我国甘肃省1994年至2010年的农业投入数据为基础,计算出农业碳足迹,并对其影响因素进行了研究,目的在于探索在国际、国内节能减排的形势下,甘肃省如何减少农业生产资源消耗,降低农业碳足迹,促进农业发展质量的提高。首先研究了现有低碳农业以及碳足迹理论并根据甘肃省实际情况选择化肥、农药、灌溉面积、塑料薄膜、柴油作为计算农业碳足迹的基础农业投入指标,计算甘肃省农业碳足迹。然后选取人口规模、农业经济发展水平以及碳效率、农业机械化程度、城镇化水平指标,运用STIRPAT模型对甘肃省农业碳足迹进行影响因素分析,得到以下结论：第一,甘肃碳足迹逐年提高,农业各种投入碳成本在大多数年份表现出增长态势,在个别年份有些投入碳成本有所降低,其降低的程度远远小于其他碳成本增长的幅度,对总碳足迹的影响微乎其微,故甘肃省农业碳足迹持续增长。第二,甘肃省各农业碳成本以农药使用碳成本增长最快,塑料薄膜次之,灌溉引起的碳成本增长最慢。甘肃省碳足迹构成中,灌溉引起的碳成本占比始终处于首位,其次为化肥,自1996年开始,塑料薄膜碳成本占比超过柴油使用碳成本处于第三。第三,以1997年和2002年为分界点,将甘肃省碳效率变化分为三个阶段：第一阶段为碳效率的降低阶段,但降低幅度不断放缓;第二阶段,碳效率的提高阶段；第三阶段,碳强度经过一段时间的提高之后,又出现了不断下降的状态,但下降率不断波动。第四,在甘肃省农业碳足迹影响因素中,人口数量、人均农林牧渔业产值、农业机械化程度、城镇化水平与农业碳足迹成正向关系,碳效率与之成反向关系。第五,提出降低碳足迹的对策有：大力宣传,培养低碳农业发展意识；双管齐下,加大政府扶持力度；严格执法,规范各农业投入方式;加强科技创新,发展低碳、生态、高值型农业,提高碳效率。更多还原

【Abstract】 20th century, the issues of climate change and the ensuing cuts by the national experts concerned, energy saving and emission reduction have become important means of adjusting the economic structure and the transformation of development mode. Low carbon agriculture as an important part of the low carbon economy, more and more countries in the world focus their research on it.China as a large agriculture country feed one-fourth of the world population, develop low-carbon agriculture is imperative. Based on the data of input to agriculture in China’s Gansu province from1994to2010,calculaled the carbon footprint of agriculture and studied its influence factors. The purpose is that in the international and domestic situation of energy saving emission reduction, Gausu province how to reduce the resource consumption of agricultural production and the carbon footprint of agriculture, so as to improve the quality of agricultural development.This paper firstly put forward agricultural carbon footprint on the basis of the research in the current low carbon agriculture and carbon footprint. And according to the actual situation of Gansu province, selecting chemical fertilizers, pesticides, irrigation area, plastic film, diesel as the basis index to calculate the agricultural carbon footprint. Then select population scale, the agricultural economy development level and carbon efficiency, agricultural mechanization level, the level of urbanization indicators, using STIRPAT model to analyze the impact factors of Gansu agricultural carbon footprint, get the following conclusion:First, the agricultural carbon footprint in Gansu increased year by year, the carbon cost in most of the year show varying degrees of growth, although in some year reduced, but the lower is far less than the other carbon cost growth, having little impact to the total carbon footprint, so caused continuous growth of the agricultural carbon footprint of Gansu province. Second, among the Gansu province agricultural carbon costs, the pesticide use carbon cost growth most quickly, plastic film is the second, and irrigation carbon cost growth is the slowest. In Gansu province carbon footprint constituters. irrigation cause carbon cost accounts always in the first place, followed by chemical fertilizer, since1996, plastic film exceeded diesel to the third. Third.from1997to2002for the demarcation point, carbon efficiency change in Gansu province is divided into three phases: carbon-efficient reduction stages in stage, but slowing decline; the second phase, improve the carbon efficiency of stage the third stage, after a period of increasing carbon intensity, and there have been declining, but the decline rate fluctuating. Forth, among the influence factors in the Gansu agricultural carbon footprint, population, Animal husbandry fishery output per capita, agricultural mechanization level, urbanization and agricultural carbon footprint into positive relationship, carbon efficiency and agricultural carbon footprint into reverse relationship. Fifth, put forward the countermeasures to reduce the carbon footprint of Gansu province. Vigorously promote, develop low carbon agriculture development consciousness. Both, intensify government support; Strict enforcement of national laws, standards, specification quantity of agricultural input and engagement; To strengthen scientific and technological innovation, development agriculture with low carbon, ecological and high value, improving carbon efficiency.更多还原