【作者】 邹奕巧；

【导师】 葛宏立；

【作者基本信息】 浙江农林大学 ， 森林经理学， 2012， 硕士

【摘要】 森林生物量、碳储量的研究已成为当前国内外专家学者研究的热点问题，如何准确的更新预测森林碳储量是广大研究人员关注的焦点之一。用数学模型来估算森林生物量、碳储量能节省大量的人力、物力，同时还有使用快捷方便等优势。本文以临安市1999年和2004年的两期抽样固定样地数据为基础，构建了森林生长预估模型系统，该模型系统包括年龄隐含的单木胸径生长模型、进界木株数模型和反映采伐枯损的年保留率模型。其中，单木胸径生长模型分松类、杉类、硬阔类和软阔类4个树种组，进界木株数模型和年保留率模型不分树种组。将森林生长预估模型系统与已有的浙江省森林相容性生物量模型以及其他补充模型相结合，构成森林乔木碳储量更新预测模型系统，通过Matlab软件实现森林乔木碳储量更新预测模型系统的计算，从1999年逐年更新到2004年，并与2004年的复位样地数据进行比较，检验建模精度，再将该模型系统用于2004年到2014年的森林乔木碳储量逐年预测。结果表明：所构建的单木胸径生长模型、进界木株数模型和年保留率模型具有较高的建模精度，其精度均在99%以上。用森林乔木碳储量更新预测模型系统更新预测2004年临安市的生物量、碳储量同样具有较高的精度，其精度分别为99.04%和99.38%。从2004年预测到2014年，森林乔木生物量、碳储量将持续增加，到2014年生物量将达13.6861Tg、碳储量6.6864Tg，比2004年分别增加37.38%和37.87%，经分析，预测结果合理，该系统具有实际应用价值。本研究的创新之处在于首次提出了一个基于抽样固定样地数据的森林乔木碳储量更新预测模型系统，该模型系统由森林生长预估模型、相容性生物量模型和补充模型组成。同时，提出了一个新的进界木株数模型和一个新的年保留率模型。更多还原

【Abstract】 Forest biomass, carbon stocks has become a hot issue of the current domestic and foreignexperts and scholars to study, how to accurately update predictions forest carbon storage is one ofthe focus of attention of the majority of researchers. Mathematical model to estimate the biomassand carbon stocks of the forest vegetation can save a lot of manpower, material resources, as wellas quick and convenient advantages. Based on two sampling permanent sample plot data, Lin’anCity in1999and2004, to build a forest growth prediction model system, including the ageimplied by single tree of DBH growth model, ingrowth model and reflect harvesting mortalityyears survival rate model. Among, the single tree of DBH growth model divide into four speciesgroups: conifer, fir, hardwood class and soft wide class, ingrowth model and survival rate model,regardless of species group. combined with the forest growth prediction model system, Zhejiangforest biomass compatibility model and other supplement model. Constitute forest vegetationcarbon storage updated and projected model system. calculated by Matlab software, updated from1999to2004, compared with the2004reset sample data, inspection modeling accuracy, the modelsystem year by year forecast for2004to2014, forest vegetation carbon storage.The results show that the construction single tree of DBH growth model, ingrowth modeland survival rate model have a high accuracy, and its precision are more than99%. With the forestvegetation carbon storage updated and projected model system update the city of linan forecastbiomass and carbon storage,in2004, it also has higher precision, the accuracy of99.04%and99.38%. From2004to2014, the forest vegetation biomass and carbon storage will continue to rise,to2014biomass13.6861Tg, carbon storage6.6864Tg, compare with2004its increase37.38%and37.87%respectively. The result is reasonable by analysis. The system has practical value.The innovation of this study is the first time proposed a forest vegetation carbon storageupdated and projected model system,which based on sampling permanent sample plot data.Including forest growth prediction model system, forest biomass compatibility model andsupplement model.At the same time, presented an ingrowth model and a survival rate model更多还原