【作者】 邱俊楠；

【导师】 张鑫；

【作者基本信息】 西北农林科技大学 ， 水文学及水资源， 2012， 硕士

【摘要】 秃尾河流域位于鄂尔多斯盆地东部，处于半湿润半干旱气候的过渡地带。流域内矿产资源丰富，煤炭储量十分可观，具有发展能源化工的独特优势。但是秃尾河流域夏季干燥炎热，蒸发能力较强，水资源一直是制约流域社会经济发展的主要因素之一。如何利用流域的水资源最大限度的支撑其社会经济的发展，是研究秃尾河流域水资源承载能力的目的之所在。本文在分析国内外对水资源承载能力的研究的基础上，应用模糊集对分析法、主成分分析法和模糊综合评价法评价秃尾河流域现状年的水资源承载力水平，然后以流域水资源优化配置为依据，建立秃尾河流域水资源承载力多目标量化计算模型，为秃尾河流域的水资源利用提出几点建议。本文的结论如下：（1）本文在对影响水资源承载能力的指标进行分析的基础上，结合秃尾河流域的实际情况，选取水资源模数（万m~3/km~2）、人均用水量（m~3/人）、人口密度（人/km~2）、城镇化率（%）、人口增长率（‰）、人均GDP（元/人）、工业万元增加值耗水量（m~3/万元）、灌溉用水指标（m~3/亩）、人均耕地面积（亩/人）、污径比（%）、干旱指数等指标，分别应用模糊集对分析法、主成分分析法和模糊综合评判法对秃尾河流域现状年的水资源承载力进行评价。结果表明秃尾河流域的水资源承载力呈超载水平。（2）根据多目标规划的步骤，通过协调水资源系统、社会经济发展和生态环境之间的关系，并结合秃尾河流域的实际情况，建立秃尾河流域多目标量化模型，结果表明，秃尾河流域现状年的水资源承载力属弱度超载水平，神木县和佳县现状年的水资源承载力分别属弱度可载和临界水平。在规划年，秃尾河流域整体的水资源承载力会有所提高。（3）针对秃尾河流域水资源在开发利用过程中存在的问题，并结合本论文对秃尾河流域的水资源承载力研究，为了提高秃尾河流域的水资源承载能力，应分别从开发水资源、节约用水、加强水资源的规划和建立合理的水价形成机制入手，构建提高秃尾河流域水资源承载力的措施体系和调控模式。更多还原

【Abstract】 Tuwei Basin located in the eastern part of the Ordes Basin, in the transition zone of thesub-humid and semi-arid climate. The basin is riched in mineral and coal resources, it has theadvantages for the development of energy and chemical. Water resources is one of the mainfactors restricting Tuwei Basin the developmengt of social and economic because of itsdrought and intense evaporation. The purpose to study the water resources carrying capacityin Tuwei Basin is finding a style to use the support of the basin’s water resources to maximizeits social and economic development.On the basis of the analysis of domestic and international research on water resourcescarrying capacity, the application of fuzzy set analysis, principal component analysis andfuzzy comprehensive evaluation method Tuwei River Basin water resources carrying capacityof the current year level, then to the basin water resources optimal allocation of the basis, theestablishment of multi-objective Tuwei River Basin water resources carrying capacity toquantify the computational model to make a few suggestions to Tuwei River Basin water use.The conclusions are as follows:(1) On the basis of analyzing the indicators of water resources carrying capacity,combined with the actual situation of the bald tail River Basin, select Water modulus (10000m~3/km~2), per capita water consumption (m~3/person), population density (people/km~2), theurbanization rate (%), population growth rate (‰), the per capita GDP (yuan/person),industrial million increase in the value of water consumption (m~3/million), irrigation waterindicators (m~3/acres).The index of per capita arable land area (acres/person), pollutiondiameter ratio (%), drought index, respectively, apply fuzzy set analysis, principal componentanalysis and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to evaluat the present year of TuweiRiver Basin Water Resources Carrying Capacity. The results showed that Tuwei River Basinwater resources carrying capacity was overloaded level.(2) Multi-objective planning steps, through the coordination of the relationship betweenwater resources systems, socio-economic development and ecological environment,combined with the actual situation of the Tuwei River Basin, the establishment ofmulti-objective Tuwei River basin to quantify the computational model results show that thebald the end of the river basin water resources carrying capacity of the current year is a weak degree of overload level, Shenmu and Jiaxian, the status quo years of water resourcescarrying capacity is a weak degree and can carry and the critical level. In the planning year,Tuwei River basin as a whole water resources carrying capacity will be increased.(3)Applying muti-objective model analysis the WRCC of Tuwei Basin, we can getoptimal water structure. In order to improve the WRCC,we should reduce the rote ofagricural water and improve the rote of the third industry water, at the same time, we alsoshould improve the ecological water in order to protect the ecological environment. Finally,the paper put forward the WRCC in Tuwei Basin adjusting and controling patterns fromgeneral and practical levels in face of local problems concening water isuues, such as waterconservation and sdjusting the industreal structure ect.更多还原