煤矿企业安全投入与决策研究

【作者】 石稳稳；

【导师】 姜福川；

【作者基本信息】 昆明理工大学 ， 安全技术与工程， 2012， 硕士

【摘要】 安全生产是一个全民关注的话题,尤其是煤矿的安全。现阶段我国煤矿安全生产形势依然严峻,煤矿事故总量居高不下,重特大事故时有发生。安全投入虽然有所加大但事故发生概率却仍高居不下,究其根本原因应是安全投入缺乏科学合理的分配,安全投入决策不够科学,目前我国对安全投入决策理论的研究还处于起步阶段。本文在分析研究安全投入理论的基础上,从预测事故发生概率、安全投入与事故损失之间的关系方面入手,对安全投入决策进行研究。主要的研究内容和成果如下：(1)本论文对煤矿安全投入基本理论进行了研究总结,对一些概念给予新的理解和表达。(2)利用灰色系统理论建立煤矿职工负伤率GM(1,1)预测模型。为了提高预测结果的精度和准确性,引进马尔可夫理论,对GM(1,1)预测模型进行补充完善,以便取得更精确的效果。(3)运用灰色关联分析方法找出各个投入方向对事故损失影响程度的大小,根据此影响程度可使煤矿企业的安全生产管理部门能有针对性的采取安全措施,减少事故的发生,为安全投入决策提供依据。(4)本论文在MATLAB程序设计工具下,编制事故伤亡预测及灰色关联分析计算模型,并通过实例进行验证,为矿山以后的安全生产管理工作提供了一个有效的信息平台。更多还原

【Abstract】 Safety production is a topic of universal concern, especially in the coal mine. At this stage. China’s safety production situation of coal mine is still grim, accidents of coal mine is always high, serious accidents occurred occasionally. Even though safety input has increased, the probability of accidents is still high, the fundamental reason is that the lack of scientific and rational distribution and not enough decision-making of safety input, at present, study of safety input decision-making theory in our country is still in its infancy. This paper based on analysis of safety input theory, study the safety input decision-making by the relationship among predicted accident probability, safety input and accident loss. The main contents and results are as follows:(1) This thesis concluded basic theory of safety input in coal mines, give some concept a new understanding and expression.(2) Establish the GM (1,1) prediction model of mine staff wounded using gray system theory. In order to improve the precision and accuracy of the predictions, introduces the theory of Markov to correct processing the predicted results of GM (1,1) model, so as to obtain more accurate results.(3) In accordance with the actual production of a mine, elects factors affecting accident casualty rate, analyzis its influencing factors by using gray correlation analysis method, and come to the order of influence factors, to make the mine safe production management department can take stargeted afety measures, reduce accidents, provide the basis for decision-making of safety investment.(4) This thesis is based on MATLAB programming tools, prepared computational model of the accident casualties forecasting and gray relational analysis, and validated by examples, to provide an effective information for subsequent management work in mines.更多还原