【作者】 林森；

【导师】 洪伟；

【作者基本信息】 福建农林大学 ， 森林经理学， 2012， 硕士

【摘要】 我国不仅森林资源匮乏，而且木材资源长期存在巨大供需缺口，为了解决生产的地域性和季节性与需求的分散性、必须性之间的矛盾、木材的供应时间与需求时间上存在着矛盾，将因矛盾而起的巨大物流量转化为经济效益，就必须发展林业企业，提高林产企业自身经济利益。本课题研究木材消耗结构的发展规律和与林业产业结构之间的关系，构建木材消耗结构模型、消耗结构变动系数以及运用马尔科夫链方法预测福建省木材消耗结构在未来市场达到稳态时消耗比重，以福建省2001-2009年的林木资源消耗量为例，将产出的林木资源总量作流向和消耗结构分类，深入分析福建省内市场对于林木资源的需求结构和森林的产出结构后进行定量分析并转化为标准木材消耗量构建基础数据，表明木材资源消耗数量和比例关系，作为林产企业的市场需求分析。首次提出结合逆向物流的绿色供应链的现代物流企业管理技术引入到传统林业企业中，以福建省建阳市为研究对象，通过木材消耗结构研究方法对一季度以内的林产品数量进行分析并换算成标准木材消耗结构总量，以这个数据为基础，模拟建立综合性的木材物流配送中心，采用局部线性回归估计、N-W核回归估计、只有一个修复期的库存控制策略三个方法客观地对木材物流配送中心安全库存点进行预测，计算出木材物流配送中心的安全订货期。研究结果表明：福建省从2001-2009年里林业产业结构不断优化和重新分配木材资源，将木材资源消耗重点从木制品中木制卫生筷子不断转向纸类、人造板等龙头加工业。福建省市场在马尔科夫预测是在不出现重大事故前提下按照现在的方向发展至稳定状态时，福建省木材消耗结构的四大类产业稳态时原木、人造板、木制业和纸类分别为：30.48%，14.51%，31.65%，23.36%，为福建省木材消耗结构调整提供理论依据。而针对建阳市的研究结果为：局部线性回归估计：x073天； N-W核回归估计：x176天；只有一个修复期的库存控制策略T*72天，表明无论是从图形波动程度和实际预测效果，还从模型本身参数个数上来看，局部线性回归估计都优于N-W核回归估计和只有一个修复期的库存控制策略，所以该方法可以提供更为精确的安全库存点来制定木材库存策略，优化决策中的各项指标，在满足市场木材消费需求的前提下，制定合理的管理方案，最大化降低物流成本，实现通过统计模型客观地对物流配送中心库存信息智能化管理提供理论依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 Our country is not only deficient in forest resources, moreover, there is a huge gap betweendemand and supply of timber resources for a long time, in order to solve contradictions betweenthe production(regional and seasonal),the demand(dispersive and necessary) and the time(supplyand demand of wood), the huge logistics quantity which due to contradiction must be convertedinto economic benefits and forestry enterprises must be developed for improving its owneconomic benefits.This project is to research the development rules of wood consumption structure, and therelationship between wood consumption structure and forestry industrial structure. In addition,forecasting the proportion of wood structure consumption when the future market reach steadystate in Fujian province through the construction of the wood consumption structure model and thevariation of consumption structure coefficient along with the Markov chain method. This papertakes the forest resources consumption of Fujian province from2001years to2009years as anexample, classifies the gross output of forest resources by structure of flowing and consumptionand analyses the demand and output structure of forest resources in market of Fujian provincedeeply, then constructs the basic data by means of converting demand and output structure tostandard wood-consumption structure quantitatively, so this paper could show the relationshipbetween the amount and proportion of the wood-resources consumption and do analyses for themarket consumption of forestry enterprises. This research is the first to propose applying themanagement and technology of modern-logistics enterprises which combine with GWSCM-RL totraditional forestry enterprises by using wood logistics theory. Take JianYang in Fujian provinceas research object, in addition, analyses the amount of forest product within a quarter and convertit into the gross wood-consumption of standard structure by using the method of woodconsumption structure, then base on this data, the establish of comprehensive wood logisticsdistribution center could be stimulated. Finally, this paper forecasts the safety stock-points inwood-logistics distribution center by using three methods which are the local linear regression,N-W nuclear regression estimation and inventory control strategy (only one repair-period),moreover, works out the security order-period of wood-logistics distribution center.Results show that, in order to turn the major wood consumption from wooden chopsticks inthe category of wood ware to the processing industry of paper and artificial slabs, optimizations offorestry industry structure and reassignment of wood resource has been executed by Fujianprovince from2001to2009. On the condition that no grave accident happens, Markov predictionshowed that the four major parts of the wood consumption, logs, artificial slabs, wood wares andpaper, account for30.48%,14.51,31.65%, and23.36%of the wood consumption structure,respectively when the market advances to the stable state on its current path. It’s referential foradjusting the wood consumption structure in Fujian province. Results of the research takenJianYang as sample were: in the local linear regression estimation: x0=73days, in the N-W kernel regression estimation: x1=76days, and in the inventory control strategy with single reconstructionphase: T*=72days.It’s inferred that local linear regression estimation performs better than theother two approaches, no matter from the aspect of the graphics fluctuation extent, practicalprediction, or the number of the parameter of the model. This approach may provide more precisesafety stock points to draft lumber inventory strategy, optimize figures in the strategy, establishsuitable managing plans, minimize the logistics cost, and provide objective theoretical bases forintelligent management of the inventory of distribution center.更多还原