【作者】 唐合龙；

【导师】 吴宗杰；

【作者基本信息】 山东理工大学 ， 产业经济学， 2012， 硕士

【摘要】 自从工业革命以来,人类创造了巨大的物质财富,但是环境的负外部性问题也越来越突出,温室气体排放量的不断增加,从而导致全球气候变暖。全球气候变暖将导致海平面升高、冰川融化、湖泊水位下降等,这将给人类生存带来严重威胁。进入21世纪,全球气候变暖的趋势进一步加剧,减少温室气体的排放量已成为当务之急。在过去几十年里,中国经济实现了快速发展,但经济发展的背后,依赖的是高投入、高排放、低效率的传统工业增长模式。随着经济的快速发展,能源消耗量呈现出急剧增长的趋势,而由此导致向大气中排放的温室气体也越来越多。目前中国的能源消费量和温室气体的排放量均居于世界前列,而且中国仍处于工业化加速发展阶段,温室气体的排放量还将继续增加。如果不采取切实可行的节能减排政策,预计2050年中国能源需求总量将达到67亿吨标准煤,C02的排放量将达到122亿吨。中国要实现到2020年单位GDP的碳排放量在2005年的基础上下降40%—45%的减排目标,就要转变经济发展方式,大力推动节能减排。本文首先梳理了国内外在节能减排领域取得的研究成果及相关的理论基础,分析了中国的节能减排现状及实施节能减排的必要性。其次,对碳排放影响因素进行实证分析。由于中国不同地区在经济结构、工业化进程、资源禀赋等多方面存在显著的差异性,导致各地区的碳排放情况不同。根据经济发展水平将中国划分为发达地区、较发达地区和欠发达地区三大区域,从三大区域中选取了14个具有代表性的地区,基于各地区1999—2010年的面板数据进行综合分析。文章采用计量分析法对影响碳排放的主要因素进行回归分析,得出各因素对碳排放的贡献系数；运用比较分析法从能源强度、产业结构、人口(城市化比重)等因素进行比较分析,探索导致区域碳排放差异的根本原因。最后,根据上述分析结果以及西方发达国家积累的节能减排经验针对不同的区域提出了相应的节能减排对策。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since the industrial revolution, human has created enormous material wealth, but the negative external problem of the environment has become increasingly prominent, greenhouse gas emissions continues to increase, leading to global warming. Global warming will lead sea levels to rising, glaciers to melting, the lake water level to declining, this will pose a serious threat to human survival. Entering the twenty-first century, the trend of global warming has further aggravated, reducing greenhouse gas emissions has become a pressing matter of the moment. In the past few decades, the economy of China has achieved rapid development, but the behind of the economic development, depending on the traditional industrial growth mode of the high investment, high emissions, low efficiency. With the rapid development of economy, energy consumption shows the trend of rapid growth, and thus leads to the greenhouse gases in the atmosphere becoming more and more. At present, China’s energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions are in the forefront of the world, and China is still in industrialized phase of accelerated development, greenhouse gas emissions will continue to increase.If China doesn’t take feasible policies of energy-saving and emission reduction. China’s total energy demand will reach67tons of standard coal, CO2emissions will reach122tons. In2020,if China achieves the reduction target that the carbon emissions of unit GDP decline40%-45%based on the carbon emissions of2005,China will change the mode of economic development, vigorously promote energy-saving and emission reduction.This paper first introduces the domestic results achieved in the field of energy-saving emission reduction and the relevant theoretical foundation; analysis the situation of China ’s energy-saving emission reduction and the necessity of implement of energy-saving emission reduction.Secondly, makes empirical analysis of factors of the carbon emission, because different regions of China have the remarkable difference in the economic structure, industrialization, resource endowment and other aspects, so the carbon emissions of various regions are different. China is divided into developed areas, the more developed regions and underdeveloped areas according to the differences in the level of economic development, selects14representative regions from three regional, makes analysis based on the panel data of various regions from1999to2010. The paper uses quantitative analysis to make regression analysis on the main factors of carbon emissions, gets the contribution coefficient of the factors on carbon emission,; uses the method of comparative analysis to make ratio analysis from the factors of the energy intensity, industrial structure and the city, explores the root cause of differences of carbon emissions of various regions. Finally, we put forward the corresponding countermeasures to various regions according to the above analysis result and the accumulating experience of western developed countries in energy saving and emission reduction.更多还原