【作者】 袁彬；

【导师】 郭建平；

【作者基本信息】 中国气象科学研究院 ， 气象学， 2012， 硕士

【摘要】 基于东北三省101个气象站1971～2000年逐日气象资料和国家气候中心RegCM3模式模拟的东北地区1951～2100年0.25°×0.25°格点气象资料，结合东北玉米生长发育对气候条件的需求，分析了气候变化下东北三省农业气候资源的变化趋势以及气候变化对东北三省春玉米品种熟型布局、玉米气候生产潜力、农业气候资源利用率的影响，并通过在辽宁省选取试验点研究，来确定使玉米气候生产潜力得到提高，同时也使农业气候资源利用率得到提高的适宜播种期。以期为东北地区合理高效地利用气候资源进行玉米生产提供理论依据。主要研究结论如下：⑴东北地区受气候变化影响较大，通过对1951～2100年间东北地区各气候要素时空变化趋势分析，东北地区气候总体存在“气温、辐射显著提高、降水变化不显著”的变化趋势，具体表现如下：(a)自1981年以来东北地区日平均温度有明显的升高趋势，四个时段（1981～2010年、2011～2040年、2041～2070年、2070～2100年）的增温速率分别为0.42℃/10a，0.64℃/10a，0.61℃/10a，0.42℃/10a，均高于中国近54年的增温速率0.25℃/10a，也远高于全球近50年的增温速率0.13℃/10a。日最高、最低温度的变化与日平均温度的变化趋势和幅度基本一致。(b)降水变化空间差异较大，在时间变化上，年代间的波动较大，总体上东北全区降水保持了一种不明显的增加趋势。(c)总辐射和净辐射在2011年后有明显增加，增加速率由西向东逐渐增大。⑵由于东北地区气候大背景的变化，玉米农业气候资源发生了显著变化。与基准时段1981~2010年相比，2010年之后各时段80%保证率下≥10℃初日明显提前、初霜日显著延后、生育期日数明显延长；生育期内的总辐射、净辐射增多；≥10℃活动积温明显增加。热量资源的显著增加使得东北地区适宜种植的春玉米品种逐渐由早熟型向晚熟型过渡，各品种的种植界限明显北移东扩，特别是2011年后变化趋势尤其显著。2071～2100年，除小兴安岭以北地区外，理论上东北全区都可种植最晚熟品种（22片叶子）的春玉米。⑶气候资源的变化使得东北地区适宜种植的春玉米品种布局发生改变，同时也使玉米气候生产潜力在时间上和空间上都发生了明显变化。其中，对于热量资源充足的辽宁省而言，随着气温的不断增加，玉米气候生产潜力自2010年开始反而明显下降，气候变暖弊大于利；而对于热量资源相对不足的吉林省和黑龙江省而言，随着热量资源不断增加以及玉米品种的不断更替，玉米气候生产潜力在2000年之后开始逐渐增加。在空间上，随着热量资源以及品种布局的变化，东北地区玉米气候生产潜力的高值区有由西向东、由南向北移的趋势。⑷通过建立光、温、水三要素的隶属函数对东北地区资源利用率进行研究，结果发现，东北各省气候资源利用率随时间变化都有下降趋势，其中辽宁省在2011年后下降十分显著，到2065年之后，辽宁省的资源利用率开始低于吉林省和黑龙江省。空间上不同时段的资源利用率分布有明显差异，总体上来说，资源利用率高值区有逐渐向东北⑸为了使玉米的生长避开不利的高温期，调整播种期是一种提高玉米气候生产潜力及资源利用率的有效方法，但应该因地因时而异。在辽宁省海拔较低、纬度较低的地区，温度较高的年份推迟播种期的效果比较明显，播种期可推迟较长的天数（40天左右）；而在海拔较高、纬度较高的地区，温度较低的年份，播种期推迟的天数则不宜过长。但由于东北三省各个地区的地理条件以及气候条件相差很大，所以很难确定一个统一的适宜播种期，仍需考虑多方面因素，进一步研究。更多还原

【Abstract】 This study was based on the daily meteorological data of101meteorological stations from1971to2000and the0.25°×0.25°grid data from1951to2100simulated by RegCM3underA1B scenario given by National Climate Center, in combination with the demand of climaticcondition for maize growth in Northeast China. The trajectory of agricultural climaticresources and the effects of climate change on variety distribution and climatic potentialproductivity of spring maize in Northeast China under future climate change were analyzed.And through selecting test points in Liaoning province to determine the suitable sowing datethat could improve the climatic potential productivity and climate resources utilization rate.The study will provide theoretical foundation for maize production using agriculturalclimatic resources efficiently and reasonably in Northeast China. The main conclusions are asfollows:⑴Northeast China was affected by climate change obviously as follows:(a) The dailyaverage temperature had a significant rise trend in Northeast China since1981, and thewarming rate in four periods(1981-2010s，2011-2040s，2041-2070s，2071-2100s) are0.42℃/10a，0.64℃/10a，0.61℃/10a&0.42℃/10a，higher than that of China in nearly54years(0.25℃/10a) and the global in nearly50years (0.13℃/10a). Trends of maximum andminimum air temperature are similar to daily average temperature.(b)The spatial tendency ofthe precipitation was different and the increase trend was not obviously but the change isremarkable among years.(c)The total radiation increased obviously since2011, and theincrease rate became bigger from west to east.⑵The agricultural climatic resources of maize would change significantly due to climatechange. Compared to the benchmark period, the initial date daily average temperature stablypassing10℃would be significantly advanced, and the first frost date would be delayed. Thedays of growing period would be extended, the≥10℃accumulated temperature and the totalradiation would be significantly increased since2010. Due to the increase of climaticresources, the early-maturing varieties would be gradually replaced by late-maturing varietiesin Northeast China, and the planting boundaries of several maize varieties would be extendednorthward and eastward, especially since2011. In theory the late-maturing varieties (with22laminas) could be planted in northeast except Xiaoxing’an Mountains and ChangbaiMountain from2071s to2100s.⑶There would be a significant change in the climatic potential productivity of maize onspatio-temporal scales because of the change of maize variety. As the constant climatewarming, the climatic potential productivity would decrease significantly since2010due tohigh temperature in Liaoning Province. As to Jilin and Heilongjiang Province where werelack of heat resources, the climatic potential productivity would increase since2000with theincrease of heat resources and the change of variety. There would be a significant change inthe climatic potential productivity of maize in Northeast China with the high-value graduallymoving towards northeast.⑷By establishing subordinate functions of radiation, temperature and rainfall, theresources utilization rate was studied. The result showed that the resources utilization ratehad an obvious downtrend of three provinces, and it was very significant in LiaoningProvince since2011. The resources utilization rate of Liaoning Province became lower than Jilin and Heilongjiang Province after2065. The resources utilization rate was different indifferent periods, and on the whole the areas with high-value would move northeast.⑸It was an effective way to increase the climatic potential productivity and resourcesutilization rate of maize by appropriate adjustment of sowing date in order to avoid hightemperature, but it would vary from place to place. The effect was more obvious in areas withlow height, low latitude and high temperature in Liaoning, and the sowing date could bedelayed by about40days. But in areas with high height, high latitude and low temperature,the sowing date should not be delayed too long. However, due to the different climaticresources in different years over different regions, how to determine an appropriate delayingsowing data was a complicated issue, needing to consider the effects of many factors andfurther study.更多还原