智能决策在水资源优化配置中的应用研究

【作者】 刘喜峰；

【导师】 于雪峰；

【作者基本信息】 黑龙江大学 ， 水利水电工程， 2012， 硕士

【摘要】 水资源是社会经济发展的重要物质资源，它可对生态环境产生良好的影响，促进社会经济平稳持续发展，也可导致环境恶化，影响社会经济的正常发展。怎样能使有限的水资源得到合理的分配和高效的利用是关系到经济发展和人类生存环境的重要问题。因此，水资源的优化配置研究具有重要的现实意义。本论文建立黑龙江省2009年各地区社会经济发展、生态环境状况与水资源开发利用状况综合评价指标体系，应用Delphi法结合层次分析法确定指标权重，分别采用系统协调度模型和模糊聚类方法（传统的FCM算法、改进的FCM算法和模糊聚类循环迭代算法）、神经网络（自组织竞争神经网络和BP神经网络）等智能决策算法，对黑龙江省13个地区现有的水资源配置状况进行了协调性评价和分析。然后以哈尔滨市为例，结合模糊线性加权理论建立目标函数，通过目标达到法和遗传算法对规划水平年提出优化配水方案，然后基于系统协调度模型对两种方法得出的结果进行对比，求得哈尔滨市最佳的水资源配置结果，并提出实现当地水资源优化配置的合理措施和方案，为黑龙江省水资源可持续利用提供了决策参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 Water resources can have a nice effect on ecological environment and promote thesustainable development of social economy. It also can lead to environmentaldegradation and influence the normal development of social economy. How can makefull use of limited water resources is an important problem related to the economicdevelopment and human survival environment. So the research on water resourcesoptimal allocation has the important practical significance.This paper established social economic-ecological environment-water resourcedevelopment evaluation index system in HLJ Province in2009, applied Delphi methodand AHP to determine index weight, separately used system coordinate degree modelsand intelligent decision-making algorithms such as fuzzy clustering method (TraditionalFCM Algorithm, Improved FCM Algorithm and Fuzzy Clustering Iterative Model) andneural network (self-organize competition neural network and BP neural network) toevaluate and classify for13areas in HLJ Province. The paper has taken Harbin forexample, established the objective function combining the fuzzy linear weighted theory,separately used goal attainment method and genetic algorithm to propose waterdistribution plans for planning level year and made coordination analysis based on thetwo methods. Then the optimal allocation of water resources in Harbin can be gotten.The paper also pointed out several reasonable measures for local water resourcesoptimization allocation, and provided decision-making reference for water resourcessustainable utilization in HLJ Province.更多还原