【作者】 钞柯；

【导师】 王宁；

【作者基本信息】 大连理工大学 ， 信息管理与电子政务， 2012， 硕士

【摘要】 多年来,各类突发事件不断发生,事件的连锁反应给人类社会造成了严重的危害和损失,突发事件作为应急管理的客体对象,其相关的研究引起了各级政府以及学术界的关注。在当前的研究中,主要存在以下两个方面的局限性：一是更多的专注于特定领域的突发事件连锁反应的研究,例如自然灾害链的研究最为广泛；二是当前突发事件连锁反应的研究更多的是基于概念层面,没有考虑到突发事件的发生发展过程都是基于具体的某种客观事物系统环境,在不同的情景状态下,事件的连锁反应过程也是千变万化的。针对当前的研究现状,本文将从知识层面对突发事件连锁反应展开研究,基于知识元构建突发事件连锁反应模型：首先,对突发事件连锁反应过程中的元事件要素和环境要素进行描述,基于共性知识元模型,构建元事件模型与客观事物系统知识元模型。接着,从元事件与客观事物系统环境的角度对突发事件连锁反应进行了定义,并进一步分析了突发事件的发生机理以及连锁反应机理。然后,提出了突发事件连锁反应的形式化表示模型,对其中的元事件与客观事物系统之间的关系模型进行了扩展描述,并基于上述模型提出了突发事件连锁反应过程的推演方法。最后,以滑坡突发事件为例,对模型进行了应用。本文的研究具有重要的意义：从知识层面为应急管理者提供突发事件发生、发展、演化规律的认知,从而提高应急管理工作的有效性,同时能够为突发事件连锁反应的系统仿真提供支撑,基于知识元的应急管理知识存储,有利于在计算机平台上实现突发事件连锁反应过程的推演。更多还原

【Abstract】 In recent years, various kinds of emergencies are occuring frequently, and emergency chain reaction has brought huge damage and loss to the human society. Emergencies are the object of emergency management, all levels of government and academia have paid much attention to the research of emergency. However, there are two main limitations in the related research:First, most research focus on the specific emergencies, such as natural disasters chain, the one which is studied most widely. Second, the related studies are almost based on a conceptual level of events, which doesn’t take the object things system environment into account. In fact, in different states of environment, event chain reaction also maybe different.Given the situation of the current research, this paper studies emergency chain reaction from the level of knowledge, building a event chain reaction model based on knowledge unit. First, the unit emergency and environment element which are the component parts of the process of emergency chain reaction are described. Then, the paper builds a unit emergency model and a knowledge unit model of the objective things system based on the common knowledge model. Second, the definition of emergency chain reaction is proposed, the mechanisms of event’s occurrence and event chain reaction are analyzed in this paper. Later, it proposes a formal descriptive model of event chain reaction. And it also describes the model of relationship between unit event and objective things system. Based on the above related models, this paper proposes a reasoning method of emergency chain reaction process. At last, it takes landslide for example to show the application of the model.The study is of great significance. It provides emergency managers with knowledge about the regular pattern of emergency’s occurrence, development, and evolution, which is of benefit to enhance the validity of emergency management work. At the same time, it supports the system simulation of emergency chain reaction. And the knowledge about emergency management is stored based on knowledge unit, which will be beneficial to realize the deduction of emergencies chain reaction process in computer platform.更多还原