【作者】 余婷；

【导师】 李远富；

【作者基本信息】 西南交通大学 ， 道路与铁道工程， 2012， 硕士

【摘要】 随着我国国民经济的快速发展和经济实力的不断增强,铁路事业也得到了飞速的发展。但目前在我国铁路建设中,施工承包企业风险意识普遍薄弱,风险管理水平差,没有能够建立起全面、完善的风险管理系统,风险管理的研究有待加强。因此,作为施工承包方构建铁路工程项目的风险预警系统,对在铁路项目实施过程中可能出现的风险采取超前或预先管理的方式,一旦监控到风险的征兆,及时采取校正措施并发出预警信号,将损失降低到最低程度就显得尤为重要。本文首先研究了铁路工程项目及其风险的特点,较深入地识别分析了该项目在实施过程中可能遇到和潜在的风险因素,这是进行风险预警的前提；采用了风险分解结构将影响铁路工程施工承包项目的风险因素按层次关系进行分层、分类。其次,探讨研究了铁路工程施工承包项目的风险预警系统的构建思路和方法,包括对该风险预警系统的概念、特点、功能、框架体系以及其运行机理进行了研究。本文提出该系统的框架体系由风险预警信息子系统、风险识别子系统、风险评价子系统、风险预警判别子系统和风险预警对策子系统这五个方面组成。在建立的铁路工程施工承包项目风险预警指标体系的基础上,运用基于AHP的模糊综合评价法建立了该系统的风险预警模型,评价项目的风险情况,并对不同的评价结果给出不同的预警信号。最后,为了验证建立的风险预警模型实用性、合理性,将模型运用到龙厦铁路象山隧道这一标段进行综合评估。研究了针对铁路工程施工承包风险的几种常用防控策略,并提出了对应各等级项目风险的应对预案和主要风险因素的应对措施以及动态风险控制措施。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the rapid development of national economy and increasingly enhancement of economic strength, railway undertaking got rapid development. However, in the current railway construction, contracting enterprises are usually lack of risk consciousness, and with low level of risk management. Therefore, it’s quite important for contracting enterprises to build the railway engineering project risk warning system to take advanced or pre-management measures to adopt corrective scheme and send out warning signal to reduce the loss to a minimum once monitoring the risk signs in the railway project implementation process.Firstly, this thesis analyzed and summarized the characters of railway engineering contracting project and its risk, and conducted relative deep discriminate analysis of railway engineering contracting project risk factors. This was the premise of risk warning. It used risk breakdown structure to stratify and classify the railway engineering contract construction project risk factors as hierarchical relation.Then, it constructed the theoretical system of railway engineering contract construction project risk warning system and introduced the conception, characters, functions, framework system and operation mechanism of the risk warning system. The framework system included risk waning information subsystem, risk identification subsystem, risk evaluation subsystem, risk warning discrimination subsystem and risk warning countermeasure subsystem. Though constructing railway engineering contacting project risk waning index system and using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method based on AHP to build the risk warning model of the system to evaluate the risk conditions of the project and give different warning signals according to different evaluation results.Finally, to prove the practicality and rationality of the risk warning system founded, it applied the model to the Xiangshan tunnel of Longyan-Xiamen railway engineering to conduct comprehensive evaluation. Then it analyzed the prevention and control strategies usually used in railway engineering contacting risk, and proposed coping preparedness of various levels of project risk, with countermeasures of main risk factors and dynamic risk control measurements.更多还原