【作者】 张文平；

【导师】 丁娟娟；

【作者基本信息】 北方工业大学 ， 数量经济学， 2012， 硕士

【摘要】 在全球温度升高的压力下,二氧化碳排放已成为当今世界重点关注的主题,从二氧化碳排放总量来看,中国是世界上最严重的国家之一。而中国有色金属产业是一个高耗能、重污染、资源利用低的产业,有色金属产业的能源使用效率远远低于工业部门的平均效率。因此,本文探究从现在到2020年,既能保证有色金属产业健康发展,又能够为有色金属产业节能减排做出贡献的中国有色金属产业的总体发展模式。对有色金属产业低碳发展乃至中国经济的可持续发展都具有重要的现实意义。本文基于情景分析法研究了中国有色金属产业碳排放问题。在情景指标的选取中分别选取了中国国内生产总值增长速度和二氧化碳排放增长速度、有色金属产业产出和二氧化碳排放增长速度等指标。在情景指标选取过程中,讨论了国家之间二氧化碳排放的衡量方法,对二氧化碳排放权分配使用传统指标进行对比,基于传统的衡量指标所存在的问题,根据国家的自主发展和外部性影响原理,提出外部性指标对中国二氧化碳排放进行衡量,并分析了相关国家的二氧化碳排放情况。在其他指标的选取中,除了使用历史的平均增长速度以及国家和有色金属产业规划的增长速度外,还使用ARIMA模型对中国GDP增长速度进行预测。综合以上指标,本文对中国有色金属产业未来二氧化碳排放总量进行了情景指标的设定,并对中国有色金属产业2020年的二氧化碳排放进行了情景分析,得出了七种有色金属产业二氧化碳的排放情景。通过分析,选取了到2020年既满足有色金属产业健康发展又能够有效减少碳排放的具体发展模式,即,有色金属产业的产出增长率保持在较低的速度7.55%,该产业到2020年单位产值二氧化碳排放减少40%至45%,2020年该产业二氧化碳排放为61646-67175万吨。同时,本文对中国有色金属产业的能源使用情况进行LMDI能源分解分析,结果显示,产出效应对该产业碳排放影响最大,其次是能源使用效率,最后是产业结构。本文通过对有色金属产业碳排放情景分析和能源使用情况的分解分析,进一步论证了中国有色金属产业节能减排的潜力以及中国有色金属产业在所选情景下进行节能减排的可行性,进而提出了有针对性的有色金属产业低碳发展的建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Under the pressure of rise in global temperatures, carbon dioxide emission has become one of the themes the world most focus on. China has been one of the most carbon dioxide emissions countries. Chinese nonferrous industry is high in energy use and pollution, and low in resources use. This paper probe into the developing mode of the Chinese nonferrous industry which is not only ensure the healthy development of the industry but also contribute to energy saving and emission reduction. It has important realistic significance to give research in low carbon mode of the nonferrous industry.This paper analyzed the carbon emissions of the China nonferrous metal industry based on the scenario analysis. In the selection of the scenario index, this paper choose the following factors, the growth of the China GDP and the Carbon dioxide emissions, the growth of the nonferrous industry output and Carbon dioxide emissions. This paper analyzed the distribution of carbon dioxide emissions allocation by using traditional index. Because of the defects of the traditional index, this paper put forward a new index base on the externalities and independent development. And then the paper analyzed the carbon dioxide emissions of countries. We also use ARIMA mode to forecast the growth of the GDP. This paper set scenario by using the above index and then had scenario analysis to the Carbon dioxide emissions of the China nonferrous industry in the year of2020. By the analysis, this paper got the developing mode from seven scenarios. The growths of output speed in the china nonferrous industry keep7.55percents. The carbon dioxide emission of the industry in2020is61646to67175million tons. The carbon dioxide emissions per output in2020reduce40to45percents to the year2005. This paper analyzed energy consumption of the nonferrous industry by using logarithmic mean decomposition index, the results showed that the influence of the output is the most serious, and then the energy efficiency, finally the industrial structure.This paper had analysis of the carbon dioxide emissions and energy consumption of the nonferrous industry. The paper Demonstrate the energy conservation and emission reduction and the feasibility of the emissions reducing to the industry. Finally, the paper gets conclusions and the suggestions to low carbon development of the nonferrous industry.更多还原