【作者】 马凌云；

【导师】 汪晓文；

【作者基本信息】 兰州大学 ， 区域经济学， 2012， 硕士

【摘要】 改革开放30多年以来中国持续高速的经济增长,极大地推动了农村贫困的减少,农村贫困人口从1978年的2.6亿下降到了2007年的1479万人,农村贫困率也由1978年的32.9%降低至2007年的2.0%。尽管经济增长带来的减贫成就斐然,我国目前仍然还存在大量的贫困人口。新时期的经济增长带来了农村贫困的新形式和新特点,农村贫困问题已由过去农村地区普遍存在的大片贫困演变为向中西部偏远落后地区集中或分散存在的点状贫困。甘肃作为这样一个经济发展滞后、贫困程度较深的省份之一,亟待解决贫困的难题。因此,从经济增长的视角,以甘肃为例,探索和研究农村贫困变动问题具有很强的现实意义。本文以改革开放以来甘肃的经济增长与其农村贫困变动关系为研究对象,应用理论分析与实证分析相结合的方法,探讨了经济增长究竟通过哪些机制怎样推动农村贫困的减少,以及减贫效果如何。首先从影响方向、影响程度及影响趋势等三方面实证分析经济增长对甘肃农村贫困变动的影响。采用最小二乘法验证了甘肃经济增长与农村贫困率之间的反向变动关系,得出经济增长是甘肃农村贫困减少的重要因素。然后利用贫困变动分解法,具体分析了经济增长带来的减贫作用。同时引入贫困弹性指标,通过Lorenz曲线的模拟,显示出了甘肃经济增长的农村贫困变动趋势。接着重点讨论了经济增长的减贫机制,研究经济增长分别通过收入增长、农业发展、非农就业、扶贫资金投入以及人力资本等途径如何影响农村贫困的减少。最后,对甘肃经济增长的减贫效果进行评价,得出经济增长虽然是农村贫困减少的最重要因素,但其带来的减贫效果却明显呈现出了边际收益递减的趋势。然后针对这一结果进行了原因分析,并提出了相应的政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since more than30years of Reform and Opening-up, China’s continued rapid economic growth has greatly promoted the reduction of rural poverty, the rural poor dropped from260million in1978to14.79million in2007, and the rural poverty rate reduced from32.9%in1978to2.0%in2007. Although economic growth has resulted in striking poverty reduction achievements, there is still a high proportion of poor headcounts. The economic growth in new era has brought new forms and new characteristics of rural poverty, therefore, the issues of rural poverty have been transformed from large areas of poverty widespread in rural areas into a point-like poverty centralized or scattered toward the mid-west, remote and backward areas. Gansu, as such one of the provinces referred to economic development lags and comparatively deeper levels of poverty, needs to solve the tough problem of poverty. From the perspective of economic growth, therefore, Gansu is taken for an example to explore and study the transformation problem of the rural poverty, which carries quite a strong practical significance.This paper uses Gansu data to study the relations between Gansu’s economic growth and its changes in rural poverty since the period of Reform and Opening-up and explores how the economic growth promotes rural poverty reduction with some certain mechanisms and further influences the effectiveness on poverty reduction combining the methodology of theoretical analysis and empirical analysis. First, it uses empirically analyzes economic growth of Gansu Province impacts on its rural poverty changes from the three insights on influence direction, degree of influence and influence trends. The Least Squares Method is used to verify a negative relation between the economic growth in Gansu and rural poverty rates and make a conclusion in economic growth being an important factor in rural poverty reduction in Gansu. Furthermore, with the poverty change decomposition method we analyze specifically the impact of economic growth on poverty reduction. While introducing the poverty elasticity index, we show the rural poverty variable trend in Gansu’s economic growth through the simulation of the Lorenz curve. In addition we focus on poverty reduction mechanism in economic growth and study how economic growth affects the reduction of poverty in rural areas through income growth, agricultural development, non-farm employment, funding for poverty alleviation and human capital etc. Finally, through the evaluation on the impact of economic growth on poverty reduction in Gansu, a conclusion is made that the economic growth is the most important factor in rural poverty reduction whereas its impact on poverty reduction shows obviously the trend in diminishing marginal returns. Then we make the reasoned analysis for this result, and put forward relevant policy recommendations.更多还原