【作者】 朱吉祥；

【导师】 张礼中；

【作者基本信息】 中国地质科学院 ， 地质工程， 2012， 硕士

【摘要】 地质灾害是一种常见的自然现象,它是地质体在诱发因素(例如人类活动、降水等)的作用下演变发生的。因此研究地质灾害的演变规律,主要是分析其影响因素在地质灾害演变与发生过程中的作用机制。这种作用机制不仅包括各影响因素在地质灾害演变与发生过程中的地位(权重大小),也包括各影响因素之间的相互影响模式。目前主要的地质灾害评价方法包括基于物理模型的数值模拟法、基于概率的数学统计法以及一些基于这两类方法的定性或半定性的评价方法。数值模拟法一般需要非常苛刻的边界条件,主要用于单个地质灾害的评价,而对于区域地质灾害,由于其背景条件的复杂性与规模的过大性,一般采用基于概率的评价方法。区域地质灾害评价依赖于具体的时空尺度。首先,地质灾害作为一种自然现象,其演变与发生必然内蕴时空特征；其次,用于区域地质灾害评价的影响因素(例如地层岩性、地质构造、地形地貌、气象条件等)也具有时空尺度。因此,区域地质灾害评价必然会受尺度效应的影响,影响因素在时间上的非线性演变规律与在空间上的非均质性分布特征是导致这一现象的根本原因。但不同于其他领域(例如水文学、地理学等)的尺度效应,由于区域地质灾害评价是一个涉及多学科的技术,它表征出来的尺度效应不仅包含所涉及的学科中的尺度效应本身,同时还具有其独有的特征。区域地质灾害评价的尺度效应是指在进行区域地质灾害评价的过程中,由于利用了不同时间和空间尺度上的信息源进行分析,导致评价结果产生不确定性的现象。主要包括空间效应、时间效应与方法效应等。本文在探讨导致区域地质灾害评价尺度效应的内在因素的基础上,对其在上述三类尺度效应的表征进行了论述,然后结合具体的实例,分别探讨了大比例尺下区域地质灾害影响因素权重的修正分析(空间效应),区域地质灾害评价的有效周期分析(时间效应),以及不同方法的组合效应对区域地质灾害评价的影响分析(方法效应)。结果表明,在进行区域地质灾害评价时,应当考虑尺度效应对评价的可操作性与评价结果精度的影响。更多还原

【Abstract】 Geological hazard is a common natural phenomenon, which is occurred from the geological body that is impacted by the induced factor, such as human activity, precipitation and so on. Thence the study of geological hazard evolution is mainly analyzing the mechanism that the influencing factors impact on the geological hazard. So this kind of mechanism includes not only the status (is weight) of the influencing factors of geological hazard evolution and occurrence, but also mutual impacting mode among the several of influencing factors. Presently, the main geological hazard assessment applications mainly include the numerical simulation model based on physical model, the mathematical statistics methods based on probability, and the qualitative and semi-qualitative method which based on them. However, there generally are a series of very harsh boundary conditions of numerical simulation model, and mainly applied in the single geological hazard assessment; and to the regional geological hazard assessment, because the background of the study area is generally very complicated, and the scale of it is always very large, so that it unable to applied the simulation model to assessment, and the mathematical statistics method is the most important application which is applied to assess the regional geological hazard.The regional geological hazard assessment should depend on the specific spatial and temporal scale. Firstly, the geological hazard, as a natural phenomenon, its own evolution and occurrence intrinsically contain the spatial and temporal characteristics inevitably; secondly, the influencing factors which are used in assessment, such as the lithology, geological structure, topography, weather condition and so on also contain the spatial and temporal scale. Thence, the geological hazard assessment is inevitably impacted by the scale effect, and the fundamental reason of it is the nonlinear evolution in the temporal scale and the heterogeneity in the spatial scale of the geological hazards. However, it’s different from other subjects, such as hydrology, geography and so on, the scale effect of regional geological hazard assessment contains not only the scale effect of the subjects themselves which should be involved in assessment, but also its unique characteristics, because the regional geological hazard assessment is a technology which should involved in many subjects. The scale effect of regional geological hazard assessment is the uncertainty of the assessment result, which is caused by the application of the information which owns different spatial and temporal scale to analyze in the regional geological hazard assessment. It mainly contains the spatial effect, temporal effect and application effect. This thesis firstly analyzed the characteristics of these three kinds of scale effect based on the investigation of the foundational reason of each of them, and then explored the influence on the assessment result which was impacted by the modify of the weight of influencing factors (one of the spatial effect), the valid period of regional geological hazard assessment result (one of the temporal effect), and the associative effects to the assessment result of different regional geological hazard assessment applications respectively, and all of them combined with specific examples. Finally, the results of them showed that it should be considered the influence on the assessment operability and the accuracy of assessment result which was impacted by the scale effect when assessed the regional geological hazard risk.更多还原