【作者】 王平；

【导师】 毛佳； 尹贵军；

【作者基本信息】 吉林大学 ， 交通运输工程， 2012， 硕士

【摘要】 实时物流是指通过使用最新信息技术与现代物流技术来积极地消除物流业务流程中的管理与执行的延迟，从而提高企业整个物流系统反应速度与竞争力，提升物流企业服务水平的当代物流理念。实时物流战略的实施有助于企业竞争力的提升。物流配送系统是物流系统的重要组成部分，在实施实时物流战略的过程中必须有实时物流系统作为保障。本文首先分析了实时物流的理念、实施实时物流战略的优势以及实时物流战略与其他物流战略的关系，提出实时物流战略是当代企业发展的必然选择。然后以吉林省长春市物流企业A的物流配送系统为研究对象，分析了配送过程中进行车辆行程时间预测的必要性，针对某一线路进行数据搜集整理，建立了基于指数平滑法的物流配送车辆行程时间预测模型，并用数值例子说明了预测方法的有效性。最后，总结了文章的主要结论并提出一些相关建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 RTL means that it employs the latest information technology and modernlogistics technology to actively eliminate the postponement in logistics managementand execution，to improve the response ability the competitiveness of the wholelogistics system，and to elevate its service level. Real-time logistics strategies canhelp to enhance the competitiveness of enterprises. Distribution system is animportant part of the logistics system, In the process of implementing real-timelogistics strategy distribution system play an important role.First of all the paper analyzes the concept of real-time logistics, theadvantages of real-time logistics strategy and the differences of real-time logisticsstrategy compared with other logistics strategy, and believe that real-time logisticsstrategy is the inevitable choice for contemporary enterprise development. Then thisarticle regards the company A from Jilin province as the object of study. Afteranalyzing of the distribution process, the necessity for vehicle travel time predictionis obvious. Through data collecting for a certain line, Based on exponentialsmoothing, the article sets up a logistics vehicle travel time prediction model, andproves that the forecasting method is effective by an example. Finally, this papersummarizes the main conclusions of the article and puts forward some suggestions.更多还原