【作者】 成风；

【导师】 石柱鲜；

【作者基本信息】 吉林大学 ， 数量经济学， 2012， 硕士

【摘要】 1998年住房改革以来，我国的城镇住房开始商品化，但是房改以后房价不断上涨。以2004年为分界点，1999-2003年房价上升的幅度比较小；2004-2011年房地产价格上涨的幅度较大，2004年第2季度的房价是2715元，2011年第2季度的房价是5391元，年平均增长率10.3%。根据永久收入假设，房价变动会影响居民的永久收入，从而会影响居民的消费支出。另外，我国居民的消费支出虽然随着收入的增加而增加，但是消费率确在逐年降低。最近研究房地产财富效应和居民消费的关系的研究很多，但是这些研究并没有考虑到房价的财富效应和居民消费的关系与经济周期有关。本文与以前在这个领域的研究不同的是研究我国房地产价格对居民消费的影响时考虑到经济周期因素。因为消费者会根据他们所处经济阶段的不同来改变他们的消费决定，因此分析房价变化对居民消费的影响时应该考虑经济周期因素。在经济扩张期和经济收缩期的房价波动对居民消费的影响是不同的。考虑经济周期时，由于马尔科夫转移模型的缺点，本文使用含虚拟变量（经济扩张阶段和收缩阶段）的向量误差修正模型（VECM）。根据含虚拟变量的向量误差修正模型的估计结果，在不同的经济阶段，房地产的财富效应是不同的。在经济扩张阶段，房价增长率每增加1%，消费的增长率就会增加0.451%，在经济紧缩阶段房价增长率每增加1%，消费的增长率就会下降约0.169%。最后得到结论，住房的财富效应不仅仅与房价本身的变化有关，而且与消费者对经济周期的预期有关。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since the revolution of housing in 1998, China’s urban housing began tocommercialization. The price of house keeps growing after revolution. As a dividingpoint , housing price increased slowly from 1999 to 2003 and fastly from 2004 to2011. Housing price is 2715￥in the second quarter of 2004,but it is 5391￥in thesecond quarter of 2011.The annual average growth rate is 10.3%.According to the permanent income hypothesis, the fluctuation of housing pricewill effect on resident’s permanent income, which will affect resident’s consumptionexpenditures. In addition, consumption expenditures increase as incomes increase inChina , but the consumption rate is indeed reduced year by year.Recently there have been a lot of pappies that study the relationship betweenhousing wealth and consumption, however, these studies do not take into account theeconomic cycle changes in dynamic relationship of .housing wealth and consumption.Different with previous researches in the field, this paper quantitatively analyzeshousing wealth’s effect on consumption in different states of the economy.Even though the economic cycle is determined by many economic factors,consumers can change their consumption decision depending on different economicstates they are being now.So an empirical research on the impact of housing price onhousehold consumption in china :considering the business cycle. The result showsdifferent about housing wealth in different states of economic. Due to theshortcomings of the Markov switching model, this article uses vector error correctionmodel (VECM)with dummy variables (economic expansion and contraction phase). Estimated vector error correction model with dummy variables, in differentperiods of economic, housing price wealth effect is also different. In the boom period,housing price growth rate increases 1%, the consumption growth rate will increase by0.451%. In the recession period, housing price growth rate increase 1%, consumptiongrowth rate will drop about 0.169%. According to the estimated results of this work,housing wealth is not only related to the change of the housing price itself, but alsowith the consumers’ expectations of the economic cycle.更多还原