【作者】 梁丹丹；

【导师】 李雪梅；

【作者基本信息】 北京交通大学 ， 产业经济学， 2012， 硕士

【摘要】 铁路作为主要的交通运输方式之一,在区域社会经济发展中扮演着重要角色。各地区由于社会结构、人口数量和资源配置等不同,对铁路的需求各异。另一方面,铁路对不同地区所产生的影响程度也是不同的。研究铁路对区域社会经济发展的影响效率对于路网规划和铁路建设运营,以及区域社会经济发展有着重要意义。本文分析了国内外文献关于铁路对社会经济的影响因素,结合文献研究法、信度分析法和相关性分析法从社会、经济、资源和环境四个子系统建立了铁路对社会经济影响的指标评价体系,最后通过数据包络分析法(DEA),利用京沪铁路沿线区域四省三市2000-2010年的数据进行实证分析,计算铁路对社会经济各个系统的影响效率值和综合影响效率值。本文主要的研究工作是：(1)以DEA方法研究铁路对区域社会经济的影响效率具有一定的适用性。以京沪铁路沿线区域四省三市作为实证分析的研究对象,将构建的评价体系和模型运用到京沪铁路的实际问题分析上得到有用的结论。(2)构建的铁路对社会经济影响指标评价体系可以应用于实践。结合文献研究法、信度分析法和相关性分析法逐层构建的铁路对社会经济影响指标评价体系在京沪铁路沿线对区域社会经济的影响分析中得以应用。(3)通过实证分析,将京沪铁路沿线地区的铁路对社会经济发展的影响效率划分为三个层次,第一层次为上海和北京,第二层次为江苏、山东和天津,第三层次为河北和安徽；从铁路对区域社会经济影响效率来看,铁路对社会经济发展程度较高和发展速度较快的地区影响效率较高；铁路指标增量的影响要超过存量的影响效率。图9幅,表12个,参考文献51篇。更多还原

【Abstract】 Railway is one of the main means of transportation, plays an important role in the regional socio-economic development. In order to achieve the goal of building a moderately prosperous society and adapt to rapid economic development, railway’s construction and operation is highly valued by administration. Due to various social structure, population and resource allocation, different regions of China have various demand of railway, and also railway’s effect on the different regions have different extents. Therefore, to evaluate the railway’s impact efficiency is conducive to the plan of the railway’s network, construction and operation, thus contributing to regional social and economic development.First, the paper analyzes the factors of railway impact on the socio-economic based on the review of domestic and foreign research; second, according to the study of literature, we divide this complex socio-economic system into four subsystems: Society, Economy, Resource, Environment, and establish respectively the index evaluation system for each subsystem; finally, we use the DEAP software to complete the calculation of DEA model. This paper calculates separately the impact efficiency of the railway mileage, passenger capacity, freight capacity and railway’s structure affect each subsystem. We use the subjective weighting method to empower weight to each subsystem, and then we calculate their weighted average efficiency, which is treated as the comprehensive efficiency. The main work obtained in this study is:(1) To explore the railway’s impact efficiency on regional socio-economic. The paper establishes the index evaluation system and selects the Data Envelopment Analysis evaluation model, choosing the regions along Beijing-Shanghai railway, and then applies the index and method to the analysis of the practical problems.(2) To build an applicability index evaluation system. We use Literature Analysis, Reliability Analysis and Correlation Analysis to build the railway evaluation system of socio-economic impact indicators.(3) According to the empirical results, the main conclusions of this paper are:The technical efficiency values can be divided into three levels:The first level is Shanghai and Beijing; the second level is Jiangsu, Shandong and Tianjin; the third level is Hebei and Anhui. By the railway’s impact efficiency on the regional socio-economic, the higher level of economic development and faster pace of development, the higher efficiency. In addition, railway’s increment efficiency is higher than railway’s stock efficiency.更多还原