【作者】 倪小芬；

【导师】 魏新利； 刘宏；

【作者基本信息】 郑州大学 ， 安全技术及工程， 2012， 硕士

【摘要】 安全生产水平的高低不仅可以从侧面体现出一个国家的经济发展水平和管理水平,也关系到社会的稳定和谐。因而,作为安全生产技术支撑的安全评价体系的相关研究,也逐步被国家所重视。但由于安全评价绩效的滞后性、隐蔽性、复杂性等特性,其绩效不像其他产品投入一样能够随成品表现出来,因此明确安全评价绩效的概念,将安全评价绩效尽可能的进行量化分析非常重要。本文从经济贡献率、安全生产事故起数两个指标出发,以层次分析方法和灰色系统理论为基础,系统研究了安全评价对我国经济增长的贡献率及安全评价与经济发展之间的关系,其主要研究内容和结果有：(1)通过层次分析方法和问卷调查,以安全评价经济贡献率为绩效评价指标,结合索洛增长模型以及安全评价效果影响系数,建立了适合安全评价绩效分析的测算模型,测算出了2002—-2009年我国安全评价对经济增长的贡献率为1.54%。(2)以河南省2002—-2006年危险化学品领域事故发生起数为原始序列,并结合当前我国经济发展趋势对其构造了一阶平均弱化缓冲算子进行数据序列的弱化。估算出了幂指数a的值为0.043821,发展系数a为0.095162,以及参数b为10.596082,从而建立了GM(1,1)幂模型。对模拟值的平均相对误差进行分析,得到模型的平均相对误差为7.1670%,精度等级介于二级和三级之间。通过GM(1,1)幂模型预测得到的河南省2007—-2011年危险化学品领域事故起数显示,近几年实际发生的事故起数明显低于预测值,即安全评价起到了减少事故发生的作用。(3)采用改进的灰色斜率关联度对河南省2002—2010年危险化学品领域事故起数与该时期GDP增长率的相关性进行了分析,得到了两个序列的关联度为—0.5037,表明两者呈负相关关系,即事故起数的增长会导致GDP增长的减缓。结合GM(1,1)幂模型的预测结果,表明安全评价对经济的增长起到了一定的促进作用。(4)针对我国安全评价绩效管理工作中存在的问题提出了建议和对策措施。更多还原

【Abstract】 The level of work safety can not only reflects a country’s economic developmental level and the management level from the side, but also related to the stability and harmony of the society. Therefore, the related study on the safety evaluation system which as a technical supporting for the work safety has been gradually paid great attention to. But because of the characteristics of the performance of safety evaluation, which include hysteresis, concealment and complexity and so on, the performance of safety evaluation can not be expressed by finished products like other input. So it is important to clear and definite the concept of the safety evaluation performance and to quantitatively analyse the performance of safety evaluation as far as possible. Therefore, the economic contribution rate and the accidents of work safety as two indexes in this paper, and then to systematically study the contribution rate of safety evaluation on economic growth and the relationship between the safety evaluation and the economic development based on Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Gray System Theory. The main research contents and results as follows:(1)The contribution rate of safety evaluation on economic growth as an evaluation index of performance, and then the estimation model of safety evaluation performance is established based on AHP and questionnaire survey, and also combined with the Solow’s Growth Model and the influence factors on safety evaluation effect. As a result, the contribution rate of safety evaluation on economic growth in China from2002to2009is1.54%.(2)The number of accidents about dangerous chemicals in Henan province from2002to2006as the original series, and then the first order average weakening buffer operator is constructed combined with the current trend of economic development in China. Based on the values of parameters, which a is0.043821, a is0.095162and b is10.596082, the GM (1,1) power model is established in this paper. Then, the average relative error of the values of simulation is accounted for7.1670%, and the precision grade is belong to the range from level2to level3. As a result, the accidents of dangerous chemicals of Henan province from2007to2011can be calculated by the GM (1,1) power model, and they show that the actual accidents occurred in recent years are significantly lower than the predicted. That is to say, safety evaluation has an effect on the reduction of accidents.(3)The relevance between accidents of dangerous chemicals and the GDP year-on-year growth rates from2002to2010of Henan province is analyzed based on the improved correlation degree of grey slope coefficient. And it is accounted for0.5037, which indicates that the two elements have negative correlation. Therefore, the increase of the number of accidents can slow down the growth of GDP. Combined with the results of prediction via GM (1,1) power model, it is demonstrated that safety evaluation plays a certain role in promoting the economic growth.(4)Some suggests and countermeasures are presented at last according to the problems existed in the performance management of safety evaluation in China.更多还原