【作者】 尹露；

【导师】 张彩虹；

【作者基本信息】 北京林业大学 ， 统计学， 2012， 硕士

【摘要】 在能源危机、环境问题与可持续发展矛盾日益激化的时代背景下,生物质能源的开发成为我国能源发展战略的重要内容。以木本油料能源树种为原料生产生物柴油在我国有较大的优势和发展前景。进行木本油料能源开发,原料供应问题需要着重考虑。原料供应系统处于能源产业发展的上游,其风险状态与整个产业的稳定发展关系密切。通过对木本油料能源开发原料供应系统的风险实施管理,可以明确其风险状态,以有效指导原料供应系统的建设和改善。本文在对原料供应系统的作业环节进行工作结构分解和对风险因素进行风险结构分解的基础上识别出原料供应系统中存在的各种风险因素,然后采用控制区间和记忆模型对各个风险因素的风险概率分布进行估计和评价,得到木本油料原料供应系统的总体风险状态,并以此为依据采用不同的风险控制手段进行风险应对措施的安排。更多还原

【Abstract】 Under the background of the contradiction between energy crisis, environmental issues and sustainable development intensifying gradually, biomass energy development becomes an important part of China’s energy development strategy. It has a great advantage and good prospect that using oil trees as raw materials to product biodiesel. Particularly, supply of raw materials is worth considering during the energy development of oil trees. Raw material supply system is in the position of upstream, and its risk status goes hand in hand with the stability of the energy development. By implementing risk management in the supply system of raw materials, risk status of the entire system will be discriminated, and it will help improving the raw material supply system.In this paper, work breakdown structure of operation processes in raw material supply system and risk breakdown structure of risk factors are the foundation of risk management. Probability distributions of these identified risk factors are estimated by using Controlled Interval and Memory Models, and then, the risk status of the entire system is derived from the results of estimation. On the basis of the study mentioned above, a risk control plan will be made and it’s composed of different risk control measures and risk response arrangements.更多还原