【作者】 刘从法；

【导师】 罗日成；

【作者基本信息】 长沙理工大学 ， 高电压与绝缘技术， 2012， 硕士

【摘要】 电力变压器是电力系统中的重要设备之一，其运行的可靠性对电力系统安全稳定运行有着重要的影响。因此，对电力变压器的健康状态评价以及评价后的维修决策研究就显得尤为重要。长期以来，我国基本采用计划性定期维修，其不足主要在：不根据电力变压器的实际运行状况来确定维修，而是根据维修规程中的维修周期，以到期必修的维修原则进行，缺少明确的维修目标；同时，人力和财力资源无法有效配置，增加维修费用，造成资源浪费。而状态维修则从设备的实际运行状态出发，通过运行经验、在线监测和电气试验等来确定设备健康状态，针对性强，目标明确，该修则修；从维修费用来讲，状态维修具有一定的经济性。因此，在工业生产中，状态维修已得到较为广泛的认可，将会代替计划性定期维修而成为一种趋势。根据状态维修的性质，必须根据在线数据以及运行经验等来进行健康状态评价，然后依据评价结论，制定相应的维修决策方案，这就是状态维修的基本过程。本文通过查阅大量国内外文献，结合变压器实际运行状态，对以下几个方面进行了研究：提出了采用层次分析法的灰色聚类电力变压器状态评价方法。首先采用层次分析法把电力变压器的状态量进行分类，转化为定量指标，构造出层次判断矩阵，求出各指标在变压器中的组合权重；其次对电力变压器的健康状态进行优劣比较，得出五种设备状态并将其定义成五种灰类，建立相应的白化权函数；根据灰色聚类理论，把组合权重与白化权函数结合起来计算就可以得到变压器的状态。将多目标智能加权灰靶理论引入到电力变压器的维修决策中，首先建立变压器的对策集，并从经济性和安全性等方面中选取决策目标，构造出局势集，然后对目标效果值进行中靶分析；同时给出其决策计算步骤，并应用实例加以分析。根据决策局势效果向量与最优效果向量的关联度，在电力变压器中应用灰色关联决策来对其进行状态维修决策。建立变压器的对策集，并从经济性和安全性等方面中选取决策目标，构造出局势集，进行关联度分析，同时，采用定权和加权两种方法对决策目标进行对比研究；通过对比发现，加权决策更符合实际运行，使定性分析与定量分析互补，减少决策误差，优化维修决策结论。更多还原

【Abstract】 The power transformer is one of the important equipment in the power system, theoperation reliability of the transformer take an important act on the security andstability of power system. Therefore, it is particularly important to access the healthstatus of power transformers and make maintenance decision. For a long time, theplanned regular maintenance has been become maintenance methods, its shortcomingsare not based on actual operating conditions of power transformers to determine themaintenance, but according to the maintenance cycle of the maintenance of order,making the compulsory maintenance principles, but it lack the clear maintenanceobjectives; and make no effective allocation of human and financial resources,increasing maintenance costs, resulting the waste of resources. But the statemaintenance of the equipment from the starting line monitoring and on-line test todetermine health status of the equipment, and the maintenance objectives are clear,maintenance is only in need of repair; in terms of maintenance costs, it is moreeconomic. The state maintenance has been more widely recognized in industrialproduction, therefore, it will become a trend instead of planned regular maintenance.According to the nature of the status maintenance, the health assessment must bebased on online data and operating experience, and then in accordance with theconclusions of the assessment , making a maintenance decision , which is the basicprocess of the state of maintenance . Access to a large number of domestic and foreignliteratures , the following aspects have been studied in the paper. The paper introducesthe analytic hierarchy process and gray clustering methods to assess the powertransformer healthy state. Firstly, using the analytic hierarchy to classify the state ofthe power transformer, transforming the qualitative indicators into quantitativeindicators, and constructing a hierarchical judgment matrix to calculate the combinedweights of the various indicators in the transformer weight. Secondly, comparing theadvantages and disadvantages of the health status of the power transformer, fivedevice status are established, defining as five grey classes, then establishing thewhitenization weight function of the grey classes. According to the gray clustermethod, combining the combined weights with the whitenization weight, to calculatethe status of the transformer.The multi-attribute intelligent grey target decision model apply to the maintenance decision of the power transformer, establishing a set of countermeasures of thetransformer, and selecting the decision-making target from the economic and securityaspects., The case of hit the bull’s eye of the objective effect value is fully considered;its decision-making calculation steps are given, and apply examples to analyze themethod.In accordance with the relational degree of the decision-making situation effectvector and the optimal effect vector, apply the grey relation decision-making to themaintenance decision-making of the power transformer, establishing a set ofcountermeasures of the transformer, and selecting the decision-making target from theeconomic and security aspects, and apply fixed weight and variable weight to studycomparatively to the decision objective, By comparison, the variable weighteddecision-making is more realistic , to make qualitative analysis and quantitativeanalysis be complementary , and reduce the decision-making errors.更多还原