【作者】 张吉光；

【导师】 吴义虎；

【作者基本信息】 长沙理工大学 ， 交通信息工程及控制， 2012， 硕士

【摘要】 近几年来，由于交通和安全领域的专家对道路交通安全状况的重视，各交通管理部门宣传力度的加大，使得众多驾驶员在安全驾驶方面的认识有所觉悟、有所提高，高速公路上交通安全事故的事故数量整体上呈现出下降的趋势，但高速公路汽车连环追尾事故所带来的损失不容忽视，数十辆车连环追尾碰撞事故时有发生，中央电视台（CCTV-1）新闻联播已报道过多起高速公路连环追尾事故，这类事故在给人们的生命和财产带来巨大损失的同时，制约着高速公路发挥其应有的巨大作用，大大降低了高速公路运输系统整体经济效益，给社会经济的发展带来了很大的负面影响。本论文的研究将高速公路汽车连环追尾现象作为对象，基于对国内、国外有关领域的研究及发展现状，提出了本论文的主要研究内容，从简单的两车追尾机理分析为切入点展开对高速公路汽车连环追尾现象的研究，通过对三类典型连环追尾现象的分析来描述高速公路汽车连环追尾事故的形成机理，主要是在学习复杂系统脆性理论以及模糊综合评价方法等理论的基础上，构造了高速公路交通系统的脆性结构化模型，对高速公路汽车连环追尾风险进行研究。本论文的研究目的，旨在通过对对高速公路汽车连环追尾风险的研究寻求预防连环追尾事故的策略。研究结论表明：通过计算出的熵值大小，我们可以对高速公路汽车连环追尾风险的不确定性进行一定程度的衡量，整个研究过程对找出影响高速公路交通系统的脆性崩溃的关键脆性因子，采取有效的措施对其加以控制，能够有效预防高速公路汽车连环追尾事故的发生。更多还原

【Abstract】 In recent years, as people of road traffic safety attention, expressway trafficsafety accident overall presented down the number of the trend, but highway serialbehind accident the damage can’t be ignored, dozens of car serial behind collisionaccident common occurance, China central television station (CCTV-1) has reportedthe news broadcast too much on highway serial behind accident, this kind ofaccident to the people in caused heavy loss of life and property at the same time,restrict the highway play their due role huge, and greatly reduce the highwaytransportation system overall economic benefit, to the development of socialeconomy brings a lot of negative effects.Based on the highway car serial car tracing cauda phenomenon as the researchobject, the paper analyses the present situation of the development of the domesticand foreign relevant field research, on the basis of this paper put forward the maincontents combined with the traditional road traffic safety research method, fromsimple two car tracing cauda mechanism analysis as the breakthrough point begin tohighway car tracing cauda serial kind of research, through to the three kinds oftypical serial car tracing cauda phenomenon analysis to describe the highway carserial behind accident mechanism, using complexity system brittleness theory, setsup the expressway traffic system brittle structure model, and combining the fuzzycomprehensive evaluation method highway car tracing cauda risks to the series.This paper studies the purpose and aims to the rightness highway car serial cartracing cauda risk for preventing serial behind accident strategy. It shows that thesize of the entropy based on risk can measure for highway car tracing cauda risksystem serial brittle risk overall uncertainty, helps to find out what the brittlenesscollapse of the system the effect of key factors and brittleness try to control.更多还原