【作者】 夏龙凯；

【导师】 宋传增；

【作者基本信息】 山东建筑大学 ， 道路与铁道工程， 2012， 硕士

【摘要】 我国高速公路经过二十年的建设和发展取得了巨大的进步,以高速公路为主体的现代化公路交通运输体系以其高效的运输服务有力地促进了我国国民经济的健康快速发展。伴随着《国家高速公路网规划》的通过与实施,各地也相应积极规划建设地方高速公路,我国高速公路建设将迈入新一轮的跨越式发展阶段。在高速公路建设呈现网络化、规模化的同时,其社会经济效益日益凸显,科学地评价区域高速公路网社会经济效益、探讨区域高速公路网与经济社会发展的互动关系对于合理制订高速公路的发展战略及规划,兼顾地区公平,促进交通运输与经济社会的协调、可持续发展具有一定的理论价值和现实指导意义。本文围绕济南至东营高速公路展开研究,以提供决策参考。拟建济南至东营高速公路起自济南市区北部,向东经济阳县,滨州市惠民县、滨城区,东营市利津县,接至东营港疏港高速。全长163.3公里,是山东省高速公路“5418”网的重要组成部分,直接连接了济南、滨州、东营三个地市以及黄河三角洲内重要的工矿企业和旅游景点,是一条具有政治、经济和文化意义的重要公路。论文采用四阶段法对济南至东营高速公路交通量进行预测,.交通量预测是进行经济评价的基础。阐述了交通量预测的思路和方法,确定了OD交通调查的方法,对交通小区进行了划分,对调查到的基年OD进行了核校检验,在此基础上,完成了交通生成、交通分布、交通分配,对济南至东营高速公路交通量进行了预测。在交通预测的基础上,对济南至东营高速公路分别进行了经济评价和社会评价。结合济南至东营高速公路项目的实际情况,选用过民经济评价的方法,对项目的经济效益进行了分析、论证,论证该项目的分析结果是可行的,且具有较强的抗风险能力。进行了社会影响的评价、项目与社会的互适性评价、项目的社会风险及对策评价三个方面进行评价,论证表明该工程可以促进区域经济发展,增加当地人民的就业机会,提高人民的生活水平,可以立项建设。实践也证明了这评价的正确性。更多还原

【Abstract】 The construction and development of expressway has made great achievement in china during past20years. The system of modern road and transportation representative by expressway has promoted the development of economy effectively in this period, as well as efficient service system. As the planning of national expressway implementing, the planning and construction of regional expressway are proceeding in many provinces. The development of has been marching in another high level stage. With the expressway forming network and large scale, the social benefit of which has appearing increasingly. It is of important theory value and directive significance by studying on social benefit of regional expressway network, which is favorable for making planning of regional expressway network and advancing the harmony sustainable development of transportation and social economy.This article hereby is to study Jinan-Dongying expressway so as to provide some decision-making references. Jinan-Dongying expressway starts from the north of Ji nan which extends eastward to Jiyang, Huimin county of Binzhou, Bincheng district of Binzhou, Lijin County of Dongying, connecting to the port of Dongying expressway.This expressway full-length is163.3kilometers,which is the important component of Shandong province highway"5418" of the network, directly connects to Jinan, Binzhou, Dongying and the important industrial and mining enterprises and tourist attractions of the Yellow River Delta, as well as a political、economic and cultural significance highway.Studies the traffic forecast of Jinan-Dongying expressway with four-stage method,which is the basis for economic evaluation.lt illustrates the idea and method of traffic forecast,ascertaining the Origin Destination (OD) survey method.Secondly,it divides the traffic zone,checking and testing the OD survey of the base year.Finally,it completes the traffic generation,traffic distribution and traffic assignment in order to predict the traffic volume of Jinan-Dongying expressway.Economic evaluation and social evaluation are done on the Jinan-Dongying expressway. According to the actual situation, choosing the national economic evaluation methods, to analyze and argue the economic benefits of the project. The results of the analysis is feasible, and having strong ability to resist risks. At the same time evaluating three aspects of the social impact analysis, project and social compatibility analysis, and the social risk and countermeasures analysis, demonstrates that the project can promote the development of regional economy, increase local people’s employment opportunities,and improve the people’s living level.更多还原