【作者】 赵秀平；

【导师】 栾维新；

【作者基本信息】 大连海事大学 ， 产业经济学， 2012， 硕士

【摘要】 石化工业作为推动工业化、城市化和国民经济增长的重要力量,它对经济增长的贡献愈加凸显。而炼油和乙烯作为石化工业的龙头在国民经济中的地位和作用也日益显著,炼油和乙烯的发展水平及其供给能力也成为衡量我国石化工业现代化程度的重要指标。但是,随着我国石油消费量的增长和油价的攀升,我国石化工业的发展尤其是沿海石化工业的发展面临的矛盾和问题最为突出。此外,我国石化工业发展起步相对较晚,研究理论不够成熟,对石化工业的的研究多以定性分析为主。因此,开展对石化工业炼油和乙烯的供需平衡研究,剖析炼油和乙烯在发展中遇到的瓶颈,解决石化工业发展面临的矛盾和问题,实现石化工业与国民经济健康协调发展,具有重要的理论意义和深远的实践意义。本文从分析沿海石化工业发展现状入手,首先阐述了石化工业的发展历程、沿海石化工业基地和园区的空间分布格局,简单概括出沿海石化工业发展的特点,通过归纳总结,筛选出具有代表性的石化产品即炼油和乙烯来凸显石化工业未来发展的趋势；其次利用状态空间模型建立全国性的炼油、乙烯需求的预测模型,定量预测出“十二五”期间炼油和乙烯的需求量；梳理“十二五”期间我国炼油和乙烯的总生产能力,进行炼油和乙烯的供需平衡分析,剖析发展中存在的产品、结构供需失衡问题,对引起供需失衡的原因进行分析,剖析供需失衡带来的隐患；最后针对问题和隐患,提出以促进石化工业与沿海经济、资源和环境持续、健康、协调发展为核心的对策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 As an important force to promote industrialization、urbanization and the growth of national economy, the contribution of petroleum and chemical industry is even more prominent in China. The status and role of oil refining and ethylene in the petroleum and chemical industry leading position in the national economy are increasingly significant, the level of oil refining and ethylene、the strength of supply capacity also become an important indicator to measure the degree of modernization of petroleum and chemical industry in China. However, with the growth of oil consumption and the rising of oil prices, China’s petroleum and chemical industry especially coastal areas petroleum and chemical industry facing the prominent contradictions and problems in the development. Coupled with the development of petroleum and chemical industry started relatively late, the study theory is not mature enough、research the petroleum and chemical industry commonly used qualitative analysis. Therefore, research the balance about supply and demand of oil refining and ethylene, analysis the contradictions and problems faced by the petroleum and chemical industry, solve the the contradictions and problems in the petroleum and chemical industry development process become an important theoretical significance and far-reaching practical significance that to achieve the coordinated and health between the petroleum chemical industry and the national economy.Based on analysis the development status of coastal petroleum chemical industry, described the course of development about the petroleum and chemical industry firstly, spatial distribution pattern about the base and park of the coastal petroleum and chemical industry, summary the characteristics of the development of the coastal petroleum and chemical industry briefly, screened representative of petroleum and chemical products oil refining and ethylene to highlight the future development trends of the petroleum and chemical industry. Use the State Space Model Forecast establish the demand forecasting model of national oil、ethylene, quantitative predict of the "12th Five-Year" period demand for oil refining and ethylene; summary the "12th Five-Year" period of China’s total oil refining and ethylene production capacity, analysis the balance between supply and demand of oil refining and ethylene, analysis the product and structure of supply and demand imbalance in the development, find the reasons that cause imbalance about supply and demand and solve it, analysis the potential threat that caused by the supply and demand imbalance. Finally, for the problems and pitfalls, put forward to the core of suggestions that promoting the development in the environment、health、coordination between coastal economy and the petroleum and chemical industry.更多还原