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基于FTA的高原飞行风险识别系统的设计与实现

Design and Implementation of the Plateau Flight Risk Identification System Based on the FTA

【作者】 吴晨钰

【导师】 罗晓利;

【作者基本信息】 中国民用航空飞行学院 , 载运工具运用工程, 2012, 硕士

【摘要】 相比平原飞行而言,高原飞行的影响因素更为复杂,高原飞行的安全问题一直是困扰业界人士和广大学者的难题。为了控制高原飞行的安全风险,预防飞行事故的发生,民航企业需要对高原飞行的风险源进行识别,这也是建立飞行安全保障计划的一项主要工作。本文是国家自然科学基金/民航联合基金重点项目“高原复杂机场终端区安全飞行理论和关键技术研究”(批准号:60832012)的一部分,旨在构建一个针对高原飞行的风险识别系统,以加强对高原飞行风险源的识别。本文首先介绍了高原飞行风险因素的研究理论,分析了高原机场恶劣环境对于飞行安全的影响;而后借助风险识别和风险管理方法以及事故树分析法(FTA)等理论方法,结合系统的定性和定量分析法,根据高原飞行运行环境复杂的特点,构建一个以预防事故发生为宗旨、以动态循环为基础的高原飞行风险识别系统。本文进一步通过运用风险识别系统实际分析高原飞行存在的问题,以此诠释和验证该系统的功能与效用。通过案例数据的分析结果表明,本文所构建的高原飞行风险识别系统能有效地识别高原飞行的风险源,达到了预防事故发生的效果,从而证实了该系统对于提高飞行安全水平具有实际意义。本研究针对高原飞行风险识别系统的构建,将有效提升飞行运行相关工作人员对高原风险源的准确识别,为民航安全管理部门实施安全监督和领导决策提供了可用工具和数据支撑,从而做到防患于未然,更好的保障高原飞行的安全性,为民航企业的安全管理打下坚实的基础。

【Abstract】 Compared to plain flight, the factors affecting the plateau flight are more complex. Theplateau flight safety issue has been a tough problem plaguing the civil aviation industryscholars. In order to conduct risk control of the plateau flight and to prevent the occurrence ofair accidents, airlines need to identify the plateau flight risk source, which is a major task ofthe flight safety and security plan. This thesis is a part of "plateau airport terminal area flightsafety theory and key technology research"(Approval no.:60832012), which is the nationalnatural science and civil aviation mutual funded key project, designed to build a riskidentification system for the plateau flight in order to strengthen identification of the plateauflight risk source.This thesis first introduced the basic theory for identifying the plateau flight risk factors,and then analyzed the impact of the flight safety caused by the harsh environment of theplateau airport. Secondly, according to the complex features of the plateau flight operatingenvironment, the thesis build a plateau flight risk identification system for the purpose ofprevention of air accidents based on the dynamic cycle, which is combined with qualitativeanalysis and quantitative analysis, and by the tools of risk identification and risk managementmethods and fault tree analysis (FTA) theory. Furthermore, through the application of riskidentification system, the thesis analyzed the problems of plateau flight, in order to interpretand validate the functionality and effectiveness of the system. After the analysis of case data,the results show that the plateau flight risk identification system can effectively identify thesources of danger for flight safety and achieve an effect of prevention of the accident.Finally, the plateau flight risk identification system, constructed in this study, caneffectively enhance the accurate identification of the flight operations staff on the risk sourceof plateau and provide some available tools and data to support the implementation of safetyoversight and leadership decision-making for the civil aviation safety administrativedepartment, which also laid a solid foundation for the security management of civil aviationenterprises.

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