山东省CO₂净排放时空差异及低碳路径探索

【作者】 张超；

【导师】 任建兰；

【作者基本信息】 山东师范大学 ， 人文地理学， 2012， 硕士

【摘要】 工业革命后的近二百多年里，随着技术水平的提高和工业化、城市化进程的加快，人类社会发生了翻天覆地的变化，生活水平得到了空前的提高。但是全球变暖、海平面上升、极端天气等威胁人类生存的问题也接踵而至。在不断的探索中人类最终认识到温室气体的大量排放是造成一系列威胁人类生存问题产生的根源。于是低碳发展思想应运而生。当今世界各国政要、科研人员甚至是普通百姓都已深切体会到低碳发展的重要性。但是在学术界，对于低碳发展的研究还并未形成系统。现有研究缺乏对区域CO₂净排放基础上的低碳发展路径的探索，提出的发展路径并不能很好的适应区域发展的实际，并且关于CO₂净排放的研究还分属于自然科学和社会科学两大领域，其间交流甚少。这在一定程度上限制了低碳发展研究的进一步深入。另外，现有研究大多针对国家尺度，对省级区域的研究还相对较少。本文依托山东师范大学研究生创新基金，选择山东省作为本文的研究区域。山东省位于我国东部沿海地区，交通发达、区位优越、经济发展水平较高、省内也存在类似全国的东、中、西的空间差异。因此对山东省的研究具有一定的典型性和示范性。本文在参考《2006年IPCC国家温室气体清单指南》和国内外现有研究成果的基础上，利用《山东省统计年鉴》和“中国科学院国际科学数据服务平台”提供的数据，构建了山东省CO₂净排放的测算体系，选择了相应的计算方法，并最终计算出了2000-2009年山东省及各地市的CO₂净排放量。然后根据计算结果分析了山东省CO₂排放量、吸收量及净排放量的总量变动、空间格局、空间差异演变等方面的特点。再采用LMDI因素分解法分析了各种因素对山东省CO₂排放量变动的影响以及山东省CO₂净排放存在空间差异的原因。最后在分析山东省低碳发展面临的机遇与挑战的基础上，结合计量分析结果提出山东省的低碳发展路径。本文结论主要如下：（1）山东省CO₂净排放呈逐年增加态势，但2006年之后，增长幅度有所减缓，已接近倒U型曲线的顶点。其中，CO₂排放量在2006年之后趋于平稳，而CO₂吸收量较不稳定，大致围绕吸收量为16000万t的直线上下波动。（2）山东省各部门CO₂排放均有不同程度的增加。第二产业和火力发电是山东省CO₂排放的主要来源，其次是供热和第三产业，最后是生活消费和第一产业。其中，第二产业的排放主要来源于工业生产过程中的能源和原料消费。第三产业排放主要源于交通运输、仓储及邮电通信业。生活消费与第一产业的CO₂排放所占比重相对较小。从增长趋势来看，2006年之后，第二产业排放有呈现出较为平缓的趋势，第三产业排放迅速增加。从排放强度看，第二产业（特别是第二产业中的工业）排放强度远大于第一产业与第三产业。（3）山东省CO₂净排放空间差异较大，高净排放区主要位于济南、淄博、青岛3市。其中山东省CO₂排放量空间差异较大但正逐年减小，排放区域集中现象仍然较为严重，排放重心有从东北向西南转移的趋势；而CO₂吸收量空间差异较大的现象则未有改变，也未呈现集中分布的现象。（4）从变化趋势来看，山东省CO₂净排放呈现出双中心增长，排放类型空间集聚的特点。山东省CO₂净排放高速增长区域主要分布在淄博、潍坊、青岛、日照、济宁5市。其中排放量变化受社会经济影响较大，高速增长区主要分布在烟台、青岛、日照、潍坊、济南、淄博等6市，其空间分布主要沿胶济沿线和山东省海岸线呈T字形。而吸收量高速增长区主要位于烟台、德州、聊城、菏泽等市，下降区和中速增长区呈现较为明显的集中块状分布特征。（5）山东省能源结构以煤为主，煤炭占能源消耗的70%以上。山东省的产业结构为“二、三、一”，其中第二产业中高耗能行业所占比重较高。第二产业万元产值能耗高于浙江、天津、江苏、江西、广东、北京、上海及福建等东部省市。第三产业发展相对较为粗放，其万元产值能耗仅低于西部地区，要高于全国平均水平，远高于东部地区，甚至高于中部地区。（6）过去10年间，山东省CO₂排放的变动主要受人均能耗、经济部门能源强度及经济强度的影响。产业结构、能源结构、人口规模的变动对山东省CO₂排放的影响相对较小。山东省CO₂排放的减少主要来源于经济部门能源强度的减小。各地市CO₂排放的差异主要受自然条件、经济规模、产业结构以及城市化水平的影响。（7）山东省低碳发展的机遇与挑战并存。低碳发展的路径主要有发挥政府主导作用，促进制度的低碳化转型；依托低碳科研机构，发展低碳技术；鼓励发展新能源，转变以煤为主的能源结构等。从短期来看，山东省的低碳发展应重点关注制度的低碳化转型、土地利用结构的调整以及高耗能行业的转移；从长期来看，山东省应将重点放在低碳技术研发与扩散、能源消费结构的转变、产业结构的调整和能源效率的提高等方面。更多还原

【Abstract】 Nearly two hundred years after the first industrial revolution, with the development of ourtechnology and the fast growing rate of urbanization and industrialization, our society haschanged enormously and our living standard has experienced a great improvement. But whatfollows is a serial of disasters such as global warming, sea-level rise and extreme weather whichcould lead us to a dangerous situation. We finally recognize that the main source of thesedisasters is the large emission of greenhouse gases, especially emission of CO₂. So we try tochange our development route into a low carbon emission one. But our researches on low carbondevelopment are not systematic. Net CO₂emissions are neglected when searching for low carbondevelopment routes. So routes obtained this way can not accommodate with the reality of thegiven region. What’s worse, researches on net CO₂emissions belong to natural science andsocial science respectively, and communications are quite few, which is not a good news toresearches on low carbon development. Moreover, most of recent studies are focus on nationalscale. But studies on provincial scale are scarce.This paper is supported by the innovation foundation of Shandong normal university. In thispaper, I choose Shandong province as the research region. Shandong province located in the eastcoast has the familiar spatial differences with China. So study on Shandong province is typicalityand can set an example.This paper constructs a net CO₂emission measurement system and chooses a serial ofcomputing methods. Then, the quantity of CO₂emission in Shandong province and its 17 cities iscalculated. Then the spatial-temporal differences and their reasons are analyzed. Finally, lowcarbon development routes are given based on above analysis. Conclusions are listed as follow:（1） The quantity of net CO₂emission in Shandong province is rising year by year. But after2006, the rising tendency becomes slow, and approaches the peak of inverted U curve. Thetendency of CO₂emission is smooth. But the trend of CO₂absorption is not so steady. It rises andfalls around the line of 160million ton.（2） Emissions in every department of Shandong province have increased. Secondaryindustry and thermal power generation are the greatest source of CO₂emission in Shandong, then are heat addition and Tertiary industry, the last is living consumption and primary industry.Energy consumption in industrial produce process contributes a lot to CO₂emission in secondaryindustry. Transportation, Storage and Post contributes a lot to CO₂emission in tertiary industry.Emissions of primary industry and living consumption account for very small proportions. After2006, emission of secondary industry grows very slow. But emission of tertiary industryincreases fast. The emission intensity of secondary industry is larger than those of primary andtertiary industries.（3） Spatial differences of net CO₂emission in Shandong are very large. High net CO₂emission regions are located in Jinan, Zibo, Qingdao. Spatial differences of CO₂emission inShandong are large and are narrowing year by year. Its emission barycenter moves from thenortheast to the southwest.（4） The net CO₂emission in Shandong province has two rising core. High increasing citiesof net CO₂emission are Zibo, Weifang, Qingdao, Rizhao and Jining. High increasing cities ofCO₂emission are Yantai, Qingdao, Rizhao, Weifang, Jinan and Zibo. While high increasingcities of CO₂absorption are Yantai, Dezhou, Liaocheng, Heze, and so on.（5）The main energy consumed in Shandong is coal. The proportion of high energyconsuming industries is quite large. Energy consumption per 10 thousand in secondary industryis higher than Zhejiang, Tianjin, Jiangsu, Jiangxi, Guangdong, Beijing, Shanghai and Fujian.Energy consumption per 10 thousand in tertiary industry is quite high. It is even higher than themiddle district.（6）In the past 10 years, CO₂emission in Shandong province is greatly influenced by energyconsumption per person, energy intensity in economic department and economic intensity.Influences of industrial structure, energy consumption structure and population scale are verysmall. CO₂emission differences in 17 cities are main caused by nature condition, economy scale,industry structure and urbanization.（7）There are opportunities and challenges in low carbon development in Shandong. Lowcarbon development routes are as follow: government should exert leading role and promote thelow carbon transformation of institution; relying on scientific research institutions, develop lowcarbon technologies; encourage the exploration of new energy resources, change energyconsumption structure, et al.更多还原