【作者】 陈筱莉；

【导师】 刘志忠；

【作者基本信息】 湖南大学 ， 国际贸易学， 2010， 硕士

【摘要】 近年来我国贸易顺差逐年加大,进口贸易对本国经济发展的推动作用越来越强,但是经济越发展,对能源的要求就越高,我国是一个人口大国,同时就是一个能源消耗大国,而我国是以煤炭作为主要能源消费支柱的,这种结构给资源供给、环境都造成很多压力。既然进口贸易对能源消费产生一定影响,那么通过改变进口产品结构,提高对外贸易质量,将对提高整体经济增长的质量和节能降耗起到促进作用。本文将从进口贸易对我国能源的影响进行具体的分析和深入的探讨,采用了1982年-2008年进口贸易中一般进口额、加工进口额、总进口额以及能源消费中煤炭消费、石油消费、天然气消费、总能源消费额几个数据建立VAR模型。第一部分主要论述本文的选题背景及意义,对国内外的相关研究现状进行综述;第二部分对进口贸易的现状和能源消费的现状以及进口贸易对能源消费的影响进行详细分析,第三部分对进口贸易对能源消费的促进作用采用经济学模型进行检验,检验结果表明进口贸易与能源消费之间互相影响,并且进口商品的结构造成了能源消费的增加,虽然技术进步对于能源消费的减少有一定的推动作用,但是技术对于节能降耗的贡献度并没有明确体现出来。第四部分通过采用计量经济学的单位根检验、协整检验、误差修正模型等方法对进口贸易对能源消费之间的关系进行实证分析,并对二者的长期和短期因果关系进行了检验,结果表明,进口贸易对能源消费有显著影响,能源消费也在一定程度上制约进口贸易的发展,二者都是互为格兰杰因果关系的。而且通过脉冲图可以看出来,进口贸易对能源消费的短期内影响虽然不是很显著,但长期来看将持续影响能源消费。最后,根据实证分析的结果探讨了通过调整进口贸易方式起到节能降耗的作用的措施,并提出了相关的建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 China’s trade surplus has increased these years, the promotion of import trade to the development of domestic economy is more important, and that requires resources with higher quality. China is a country with a large population and big energy consumption, and coal is the main form, both of that arose big pressure to either the accommodation of recourses or environment. Since the import trade has some effect on energy consumption, to promote the standard of overall economy and save energy, we need to change the way of foreign imports.This article analyses the effect of import trade on China’s energy, set up a VAR model with the data of general value of import, processing, total import in import trade and coal, petroleum, gas, total consumption in energy consumption from 1982 to 2008. Firstly, clarity the background and significance of this research and summarize the actuality at home and abroad; Secondly, analyze in detail the status quo of import trade, energy consumption and its influence; Thirdly, test the advancement of import trade to energy consumption with mechanism model, result shows that these two interwork on each other, and the way of import cargoes arise the consumption of energy even though the progress of technology impelled the saving of consumption, but still no definite contribution. Fourthly, examine the demonstration of import trade and energy consumption with the method in econometrics like testing root of unity, cointegration test, error correction and analysis consequences of long-term and short-term, result shows that the import trade has significant effect on energy consumption, energy consumption restrict the development of import trade to a certain extent, that means, these two form a Granger causality, we can see from the pulse diagram the effect is not so remarkable in a short term, but there is a constantly influence; Finally, arise some suggestion on adjusting the way of import trade to save energy and reduce consumption.更多还原