【作者】 吴轶群；

【导师】 钱晓英；

【作者基本信息】 湖南大学 ， 产业经济学， 2010， 硕士

【摘要】 随着改革开放的不断深入,十六届三中全会提出了“大力发展加工贸易,尽快促进加工贸易产业结构升级”的政策,2009年中国加工贸易总额达到10535.9亿美元,占到整个进出口总额的半壁江山。然而,由于加工贸易的附加值低,产生的利润微薄,经过经济学家的测算,它无论对国民经济总体增长还是对地区经济增长的贡献值都很小,甚至不到3%。在此背景下,湖南省由于地处中部内陆,政策上也不具备优势,与全国其他省份相比,其发展程度甚至远远低于平均水平,仅为1%左右。因此,分析近年来湖南的加工贸易对全省GDP的贡献度并分析成因,对于加速加工贸易的升级转型,构建加工贸易新格局从而促进湖南省经济发展具有重要意义。本文以1999年—2009年湖南省的加工贸易为考察对象,首先与江苏省加工贸易的发展模式进行了对比分析,从四个方面得出了近年湖南加工贸易运行的特征,其次以比较优势理论、产业内贸易理论、产业聚集理论等理论为例,从不同角度对湖南省发展新型加工贸易进行了机理分析,而本文的重点则是选取了湖南省加工贸易的增值系数、加工贸易对湖南省GDP的贡献度和对加工贸易几个重要指标取对数后进行的OLS回归分析这三个考察对象,对加工贸易拉动湖南经济增长进行了实证分析,得出的结论是现有的加工贸易模式对经济增长的拉动度还很小,因此加速湖南加工贸易的转型升级,发展新型加工贸易具有现实意义。最后在对湖南省目前的政策、功能、关税等方面进行了发展新型加工贸易的可行性分析的基础上,提出了相应的政策和建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the development of the reform, It was put forward in third session of the 16th CPC Central Committee that‘re-enforcing development the processing trade, and promote the updating of the processing trade’s industrial structure’, in 2009, the total value of processing trade in China is 1053.59 billion US dollars. However, because of the low added value, through economists’estimate, the contribution share of processing trade to GDP is even less than 3%. Under this condition, the development in Hunan is below the national average level, only 1%. So, analyzing the contribution share of processing trade to GDP in Hunan Province and reason, is really does good to promote the updating of the processing trade and the adjustment of industrial structure.This paper recognizes the processing trade of Hunan Province in 1999-2009 with target, first contrast analyzed the developing mode between Hunan Province and Jiangsu Province, then summarized the features of Hunan’s processing trade in recent years, second to take Comparative Advantages theory, Intra-industry Trade theory, industry cluster theory for example and from different angles analysis on built new processing trade in Hunan Province, the most important in this paper recognizes AV coefficient, contribution degree, incubated for total value of processing trade etc., then do regression analysis, therefore conclude that at present, the pulling degree of processing trade to Hunan Province is too low, it is very actual value to carry out the new processing trade in Hunan Province.At last, proposed some ideas on policy from the Hunan’s policy, function, customs etc. aspect.更多还原