【作者】 林剑；

【导师】 赖明勇；

【作者基本信息】 湖南大学 ， 国际贸易学， 2010， 硕士

【摘要】 近年来,我国物流服务业得到了持续快速发展,物流费用总额从1991年的3万亿发展到2008年的89.9万亿,增长了近30倍,年均增幅20.7%,扣除价格因素,年均增长15%。但2008年的GDP只比1991年增长16.15倍,说明经济发展的物流代价偏大。数据显示我国物流成本占GDP的比重为18~19%,是发达国家的一倍,物流作业水平有较大提升空间。为了保持物流业可持续发展,除了了解增长速度外,更应关注增长的形成因素,即要判断增长是主要由投入增加带动的粗放型增长,还是主要因效率提高促成的集约型增长。我国物流业如何更好由粗放型向集约型方式增长转变,是保持我国物流业持续快速发展的关键,文章选题的基本思路正是希望为解决这一问题并得出一些可以借鉴的经验和政策建议。本文使用基于DEA的非参数Malmquist指数方法测算了1997~2008年期间中国30个省、自治区、直辖市物流业全要素生产率的变动情况,并将其分解为技术效率和技术进步。测算结果显示:1997~2008年全国物流业全要素生产率的平均增长率为4.5%,这主要受益于技术进步的增长,其平均增长率为6.4%,而同期技术效率的表现为下降,其平均降幅为1.5%。根据东、中、西部的区域划分来看,东部地区物流业发展情况较好,中部次之,西部排名垫底。并且通过收敛性检验发现,东、中、西部之间的发展差距有不断扩大的趋势。在上述研究基础上,本文从工业化程度、人力资本存量、专业人员数、市场化程度、地区经济增长等5个方面对影响全要素生产率的因素进行了实证研究,通过定性与定量分析相结合,探讨从哪些方面可以提高我国全要素生产率相关指数。研究结果显示:工业化程度、人力资本存量、专业人员数、市场化程度对我国物流业全要素生产率起显著促进作用。经济增长显著促进技术进步从而间接促进全要素生产率提升。更多还原

【Abstract】 In recent years, our country logistics service industry has continued to develop fast, the logistics total amount 3trillion developed from 1991 to 2008 89trillion nearly 30 times, the yearly average increased 20.7%, deducted the price factor, the yearly average grows 15%. But compared to 1991, 2008 GDP only grew 16.15 times, the explanation economic development logistics price is large. The data demonstrated that our country physical distribution cost occupies GDP the proportion is 18~19%, one time larger than developed countries, the logistics work level has big promotion space. In order to maintain the logistics sustainable development, besides the understanding rate of rise, should pay attention to the form factor which grows, namely must judge the growth is mainly the extension growth which leads by the investment growth, mainly because of the efficiency enhancement of the intensive type grows.Our country logistics how better by the extension transforms to the intensive way growth, is maintains the key which our country logistics continues to develop fast, the article selected topic basic mentality is precisely the hope to solve the experience which and the policy suggestion this question and obtains some may use for reference.This article used based on the DEA non-parameter Malmquist index method has studied 1997~2008 year period China 30 provinces, autonomous region, the municipality logistics total factor productivity change situation, and decomposed it into the efficiency change and the technology change. Result shows: 1997~2008 year national logistics total factor productivity’s average growth rate is 4.5%, this primary benefit in technology change’s growth, its average growth rate is 6.4%, but,at the same time,efficiency change’s performance is dropping, its average range of fall is 1.5%. According to the east, middle, the western regionalism, the eastern area logistics state of play is good, middle is next, the west places something under a base. And through the astringent examination discovery, east, middle, west between development has different tendency which expands unceasingly.On the base of upper studies,this article researches the total factor productivity from the human capital storage quantity, the specialists counted, the industrialization degree, the marketability degree, the local economic growth which affects the factors to conduct the empirical study, through determined the nature of wants to unify with the quantitative analysis, which aspects discusses may enhance our country entire essential factor productivity carrelation index from. The findings showed: The human capital storage quantity, the specialists count, the industrialization degree, the marketability degree play the remarkable obvious action to our country logistics entire essential factor productivity. Thus the economic growth remarkable promotion technology advancement promotes the entire essential factor productivity promotion indirectly.更多还原