宏观经济不确定性与上市公司现金持有行为研究

【作者】 赵金蓉；

【导师】 戴新民；

【作者基本信息】 南京理工大学 ， 会计学， 2012， 硕士

【摘要】 2008年金融危机以来,纵观各媒体报道,宏观方面的经济形势和微观企业实体的财务政策是公众关注的两大热点。在这其中,企业的现金储备行为貌似被公众视为是企业财务政策的重要体现,而在实际工作和理论指导中,事实确实如此。但是,现有的企业现金持有行为的研究中,从宏观视角进行讨论和考察的文献为数不多。基于此,本文试图从宏观经济不确定性角度出发,探索宏观经济形势与微观企业的现金持有行为的之间关系。本文研究采用理论分析和实证检验相结合的方式。首先梳理相关企业现金持有量决定因素的基础理论和对相关实证结论进行综述,进一步考察了我国上市公司现金持有状况和相关制度背景情况。在此基础之上,从宏观经济不确定性对企业现金持有行为的影响和不同宏观经济不确定性条件下,企业现金持有动机差异的具体情况进行分析,并提出理论假设。然后建立实证研究模型,选用了我国2001-2009年间沪深两市A股市场的非金融上市公司相关数据,运用描述性统计、相关性分析和多元线性回归分析进行检验。本文研究结论为：不同宏观经济不确定性条件下,我国上市公司现金持有行为存在差异,主要表现在我国上市公司普遍有现金积累倾向,并且宏观经济不确定大时,上市公司会提高现金持有水平,现金积累倾向加剧。同时,现金持有动机的具体情况为：经济不确定性大时,公司运营不稳定,盈利没保障,现金流预期的准确性下降,公司管理层的交易性动机现金持有加剧；同时,预期外部筹资渠道变窄,融资成本提高,企业管理层的预防性动机持有现金的也加剧。据此本文认为,我国相关政府部门应提高宏观研究与决策水平,并努力完善我国资本市场,拓宽我国企业融资渠道和途径；我国企业实体应积极建立健全有效的公司治理机制,加强现金管理,以提高企业对环境的应对能力和适应能力。更多还原

【Abstract】 Throughout the media reports, microeconomic situation and the financial policies of the corporate are the public’s two big heats,since the financial crisis in 2008. And the enterprise of cash reserve behavior is the important embodiment of enterprise financial policy by the public as seemingly, and it was so in practical work and theoretical guidance, But the number of the existing paper on corporate cash holding behavior from the macro view of literature is very few. Base on this,this paper attempts to explore the relationship between Angle, explore the macro economic situation and micro enterprise cash holding behavior from the macro economic uncertainty.This paper studies by the way of combinating theoretical analysis and empirical test.Firstly, explain the related basic theory of the determinants of corporate cash holdings and some empirical conclusions, further investigated the state of cash holding of the listed companies in China and related system background. then, puts forward the theoretical assumptions on the specific analysis about the macroeconomic uncertainty influence the corporate cash holding behavior and on different macroeconomic uncertainty condition, the corporate cash holding motivations reflect specific differences. Finally,set up empirical research model, and choose relevant data from the non-financial listed company of our country in 2001-2009, by using descriptive statistics, the correlation analysis and multiple linear regression analysis to test.This paper’s research conclusion is the listed companys’cash holding behavior is different on different macroeconomic uncertainty condition in our country,the mainly displays are China’s listed companies generally have cash accumulation tendency, and the higher degree of macroeconomic uncertainty, the listed company will raise the cash hold level, the stronger cash accumulation tend to.The specific situation is the company operation is not stable, no security earnings, the accuracy of the expecting on cash flow decline, the management of the company’s trading sex motivation increased cash held,when economic uncertainty is strong;at the same time, the expected external financing channel narrow, financing costs increase, the managers of the enterprise preventive motivation of cash holding also aggravate.So we suggest our country’s government should improve the research on macroeconomic and the level of decision-making, to make great efforts to perfect China’s capital market, expanding our country enterprise financing channels and ways; our country corporate also should actively establish healthy and effective corporate governance mechanism, strengthen the cash management,improve the ability and the enterprise to the environment.更多还原