【作者】 李英；

【导师】 王明利；

【作者基本信息】 中国农业科学院 ， 农村与区域发展， 2011， 硕士

【摘要】 受饮食习惯影响,长久以来,猪肉消费在我国肉类产品中,所占消费比例始终处于第一位,随着人们生活水平的提高,猪肉的地位越来越重要,人们对猪肉价格的关注度也越来越高。近年来,受不同因素影响,生猪生产的波动逐渐加大,以仔猪、活猪和猪肉为主的生猪产品价格上涨与下跌像过山车般快速,巨大的价格波动不但影响民众消费,同时也影响着生猪产业的健康发展。在生猪从生产、流通到消费的整个环节中,养殖户无疑是最薄弱的一环,始终处于被动地位,他们没有可靠的消息来源,也不能左右市场价格变化,在销售产品时,也能听之任之。特别是产品价格过低时,还要独自承担巨额损失,给未来生产带来了诸多不利因素。因此,找出生猪生产波动规律,根据规律发展的方向提前预知未来的生产发展方向,从而提前对整个市场进行调控,减少养殖户的损失,提高经济效益,达到促进产业平稳健康发展的目的。本文从近17年的生猪产品价格和近30年来的生猪产品产量等数据入手,通过分析价格变化情况和产量增长情况,来了解我国生猪生产多年以来存在的规律变化,再通过对辽宁省内生产情况的分析结果与全国变化结果相对比,得出辽宁省与全国生产变化相同点和不同点,进而能够根据分析结果提出符合辽宁本省实际情况的产业发展建议和意见。研究表明：(1)辽宁省生猪产量变化情况与全国的生猪产量变化情况基本一致,总体保持逐渐增加。(2)辽宁省生猪生产和全国的生猪生产在周期波动方面存在不同,辽宁省比全国的生产波动周期性更强,周期内波动特点更鲜明。(3)辽宁省生猪的价格变化通常要早于全国一个月左右,且生猪产品价格下降时间比全国长,普遍低于全国平均水平,显现出辽宁省是全国主要的生猪生产省份。(4)由于辽宁省与全国的周期性波动存在不同,因此在政策的制定上要因地制宜,在全国大政策条件下,适当选择有利于本地的政策加以放大,对本地不利的政策应酌情考虑是否实施。更多还原

【Abstract】 Influenced by diet, for a long time, the consumption of pork the meat product in our country, the proportion of consumption is always in the first position, as living standard rise, pork is becoming more and more important, there will be more and more concern on the pork price. Recently,affected by different factors, the live pig production fluctuation increased gradually, in piglets, pigs and pork hog prices rose and fell like a roller coaster, tremondous price fluctuation not only affect people’s consumption, but also affect the healthy development of pig industry. In the whole link of mdustry pig from production,the current to consumption,raisers whom always in a passive position is undoubtedly the weakest link,they have no reliable imformation source, nor changes the market price,In products selling,they have no one to cownt on.Especially the even when the price is too low, they still have to bear the huge losses all alone,and that brought many unfavorable factors in future production. Therefore, to find the rule of pig production fluctuation, to predict the future development direction of production by the regularity of development direction, so as to regulate and control the whole market inadvance, reduce the loss of raisers, increase economic efficiency, promote the steady and healthy development of the industry.This article starts wirh data such as nearly 17 years of pig product price and nearly 30 years of live pig product output and data analysis, through the analysis of the changes of the price and output growth situation, to understand our country live pig production for many years the existence rule changes, through to the Liaoning province production situation analysis results and the results compared to that change, Liaoning province and the production of variations of the same points and different points, and then to put forward according to the analysis results accord with the actual situation of Liaoning Province Industrial Development Suggestions and opinions.Research shows that:(1) Liaoning province live pig production variation and the national live pig production change are basically the same, maintaining the overall increased gradually. (2) Liaoning province live pig production and countrywide hog production cycle fluctuations there are different, that the production cycle of Liaoning province are stronger, cycle fluctuation features more distinct. (3) Liaoning province live pig price changes are usually about a month early, and the pig prices decline across time are longer than national, generally lower than the national average, showing that Liaoning province is the country’s major pig producing provinces. (4) As a result of Liaoning province and the national cycle are different, therefore in policy formulation should suit one’s measures to local conditions, in the country policy conditions, the appropriate choice in favor of local policies should be enlargd, on the local adverse policy should consider whether to implement.更多还原