【作者】 潘希贺；

【导师】 吴穹；

【作者基本信息】 沈阳航空航天大学 ， 安全技术及工程， 2012， 硕士

【摘要】 随着科技的发展,机电产品在人们生产、生活中起到了越来越重要的作用,同时,因产品安全性问题导致的事故也屡见不鲜。安全性是产品的重要性能参数,为了能够更好的提高产品的安全性,本文引入了预警的概念,“预警”作为一种预防事故发生的有效方法对减少不必要的人员伤亡、财产损失等事故有重要作用。本文在系统安全分析方法及失效概率理论的基础上建立了机电产品安全性预警模型。该模型的目的为构建产品事故的发生概率与产品的零部件失效概率之间的一种关系,进而计算产品事故的发生概率超出可接受的限值时所对应的预警时刻。首先,本文对分析得出的产品事故类型,按照可能产生的事故后果的严重性等级确定预警级别。其次,根据经验、相关标准等设定事故的发生概率限值,由事故树分析找出所有可能导致产品事故发生的零部件失效模式组合(最小割集)。最后,根据产品事故顶上事件的发生概率公式,结合失效概率公式构建一个含有变量t的函数关系式求解预警时间,依此提前告警以预防事故的发生。对可修复产品而言,本文提出了二次预警,即在产品维修后的继续使用过程中,也可以通过预警来提高产品的安全性,最后,本文以电梯为实例,对本文的机电产品安全性预警模型进行了应用验证。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the development of science and technology, machinery & electrical products have played an important role in our life. Also, the poor product safety which led to casualties and property losses are a common occurrence. As one of the key character parameters of product, this paper introduces the concept of early warning to improve the safety for products, which is a effective method to reduce unnecessary casualties, property losses etc.Machinery & electrical products safety early warning model is based on the system safety & security analysis methods and failure probability theories. It aims to make a failure probability relationship between products and its parts, and then calculate a time value, in which failure probability of occurrence reach unacceptable. First of all, according to Severity grade of unexpected mishaps define early warning levels. Second, set a foregone ultimate value of failure probability of unexpected mishaps on the basis of experiences or the relevant standards etc., by the FTA to identify failure parts (The Minimal Cut Sets) which cause unacceptable mishap happened. Using Weibull failure probability distribution function set failure probability of parts. At last, carry the probability formulas of the occurrence mishaps in the FTA combine with failure probability formulas of parts, and then make equations which contains the parameter of time, the solving results are the early warning time, so that, this can prevent mishap happened.For repairable products, the second early warning is proposed, when the repairable products after repaired can apply early warning to improve safety also. In the last chapter of this thesis, we illustrated this model with the example of elevators.更多还原