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广西出口贸易影响因素分析
The Analysis of the Influential Factors of Guangxi Export Trade
【作者】 曾秋芸；
【导师】 李立民；
【作者基本信息】 广西大学 ， 国际贸易学， 2011， 硕士
【摘要】 广西拥有钦州、北海、防城港三个沿海城市,而且广西与东盟国家接壤,拥有良好的对外贸易的自然条件。中国——东盟自由贸易区已经正式启动,广西的出口贸易将迎来大好的发展时机。出口贸易是拉动经济增长的三驾马车之一,全面、深入地研究广西出口贸易的影响因素,具有非常重要的理论和现实意义。广西出口贸易具有贸易总量小、贸易方式不够灵活、出口商品附加值低、出口市场单一、出口经营主体单一等特点。本文着重从定性分析和实证分析两大方面研究广西出口贸易影响因素。从定性方面来看,影响出口贸易的因素有国外需求、投资、人力资源状况、物流状况、技术水平、出口产品附加值、区内经济水平、出口产品价格、进口。从实证分析来看：东盟国内生产总值、外商直接投资、受过中等教育以上人数、货物周转量、进口以不同线性组合形式与广西出口存在长期协整关系；二,东盟国内生产总值、外商直接投资对广西出口的短期促进作用要小于长期；三,受过中等教育以上人数、广西货物周转量对广西出口的短期促进作用大于长期；四,广西进口对广西出口的促进作用在短期和长期均较小。针对实证分析结果,最后提出发展广西出口贸易水平的针对性建议。
【Abstract】 There are Qinzhou, Beihai, Fangcheng port in Guangxi, and Guangxi is next to Asean countries in good foreign trade natural conditions. As China-Asean free trade area has officially started. Guangxi export trade will face great development opportunity. Export trade is one of the three carriages driving economic growth, so studying the influential factors of Guangxi export trade comprehensively and thoroughly, there is very important theoretical and realistic significance.There are some characteristics with Guangxi export trade such as small total value, inflexible trade methods, low value-added, single market, single export business.This article emphatically do the research from two aspects including the qualitative analysis and empirical analysis research. Judging from the qualitative aspects of export trade, the influence factors are foreign demand, investment, hr status, logistics condition, technical level, export value added products, the economic level, the price of export products, imports. Judging from the empirical analysis, firstly, there are a co-integrating relationship between Guangxi exports and the Asean GDP, foreign direct investment, people with a secondary education or above, number of freight turnover, import in different linear combination forms. Secondly, in short term, Asean GDP and foreign direct investment stimulate Guangxi export less effectively than long-term. Thirdly, in short term, people with a secondary education or above and Guangxi freight turnover promotes it greater than long-term. Fourthly, in short term, Guangxi imports’ promoting function is small of Guangxi both in the short-term and long-term. According to the empirical results, finally it proposes countermeasures.