【作者】 文洁丽；

【导师】 程进；

【作者基本信息】 南京财经大学 ， 国际贸易学， 2011， 硕士

【摘要】 随着经济全球化的发展,我国利用廉价劳动力比较优势发展起来的加工贸易也受到了全球化的挑战,于是加工贸易的转型升级尤为重要。作为全国外贸强省,江苏和浙江省分别在“苏南模式”和“温州模式”下形成了自己独特的外贸方式,江苏省以加工贸易为主,而浙江省以一般贸易为主。在国际金融危机的影响下,两省不同贸易方式在发挥优势的同时,也暴露出了各自存在的问题。本文首先从外贸方式对经济增长影响的机制出发,理论上分析不同贸易方式通过哪些途径影响经济增长,然后分析选择不同贸易方式的现实依据。其次,本文通过图表数据,从不同贸易方式的贸易规模及比重、贸易主体、贸易商品结构、对经济增长的贡献率、TC指数、加工贸易出口增值率几个方面,对江浙两省加工贸易和一般贸易的发展情况进行比较分析。再次,本文重点从实证角度分析江浙两省不同贸易方式对经济增长的影响,构建以地区生产总值作为被解释变量,国内资本、对外直接投资、有效劳动力、加工贸易净出口、一般贸易净出口五个变量作为解释变量的对数线性模型,通过岭回归方法解决多重共线性问题,在控制其他变量的基础上分析不同贸易方式对地区经济增长的影响度。在实证基础上本文接着进一步分析影响加工贸易和一般贸易对经济增长发挥作用的主导因素,以江苏省加工贸易和浙江省一般贸易出口部门作为两个生产系统,分别建立两个不同的模型,通过岭回归法分析不同贸易方式通过哪些因素来影响经济增长。最后,总结全文,得出本文的主要研究结论:一般贸易对经济增长的作用大于加工贸易但差距非常小;人力资本是贸易和经济发展的关键因素;江苏一般专业人力资本较之浙江企业家人力资本发挥的作用更明显;浙江在民营经济上的制度变迁是一般贸易发展的动力和源泉;出口增值率低是加工贸易发展的瓶颈。接着针对江浙两省的实际情况提出贸易发展的政策建议。既然一般贸易对经济增长的作用与加工贸易相差不大,人力资本、制度环境是贸易发展的关键因素,江浙两省贸易的发展就应该针对实际情况,充分发挥人力资本的作用,加快制度创新,实现加工贸易转型升级,保持两种贸易方式的协调发展。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the development of economic globalization, China’s processing trade, developed by using the comparative advantage of low-cost labor, has also been in the challenges of globalization, thus the upgrading of processing trade become especially important. As the powerful provinces of Foreign Trade, under the respective models of economic development—“Wenzhou Model”and“Suzhou Model”, Jiangsu province and Zhejiang province have developed their own unique way of foreign trade: Jiangsu focuses on Processing Trade, Zhejiang on General Trade. In the storm of International Financial Crisis, these two provinces are in different trade advantages, but also exposed their own problems.Firstly, from the point view of theories, this paper begins with the influence mechanism of trade patterns and economic growth. Then, it analyzes the practical basis of choosing different trade modes.Secondly, from the different trades’scale and proportion, enterprises, commodities, contributions to economic growth, trade competitions and add-value rate, this paper has a comparative analysis on the development of general trade and processing trade between Jiangsu and Zhejiang by using charts and data.Thirdly, this paper is mainly from the empirical point of view to study the different trades’contribution to the economic growth of Jiangsu and Zhejiang province. This paper established the Log-linear Model to analyze the impact of processing trade and general trade to the area’s economic growth. In the model, GDP is the dependent variable, and domestic capital, FDI, effective labor, net processing trade, net general are the explanatory variables. To solve multicollinearity, the method of ridge regression is used.Fourthly, on the basis of empirical analysis, this paper further studies the factors which mainly decide the trades’effects on economic growth. Take the export departments of Jiangsu processing trade and Zhejiang general trade as two production systems, this paper respectively built two models in these two provinces to study this problem by the method of ridge regression.Finally, the whole thesis is summarized and according to the actual situation in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces, some policy recommendations of trade development are proposed. This paper draws some conclusions, the general trade effect on economic growth is bigger than that of processing trade, but the gap between them is very small; Human capital is the key factor in the process of trade and economic development; the contribution of Jiangsu’s ordinary professional human capital is more obvious than that of Zhejiang’s entrepreneur human capital; the institutional reform in private economy is the main driving force and source of general trade development in Jiangsu province; the low value-added rate of export is the bottleneck in the development of processing trade.Since the difference of contribution between general trade and processing trade to economic growth is little, on the other hand, human capital and institutional environment are the key factors in trade development, Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces should develop trade in accordance with their own actual conditions. Not only fully strengthen the role of human capital, but also accelerate institutional innovation, to upgrade processing trade and maintain the harmonious development of processing trade and general trade.更多还原