【作者】 李壮；

【导师】 戢守峰；

【作者基本信息】 东北大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2010， 硕士

【摘要】 全局优化和不确定性是供应链管理面临的两大难题。供应链各成员通过有效地协作可以成功应付这两个难题。产供销的一体化计划是实现供应链协作的有力工具,因而可以实现不确定下供应链的全局优化。传统的产供销计划模型忽略了对产供销时间的深入研究,没有详细划分各项活动的时间,尤其认为供应链的周期是固定不变的。本文在深入分析产供销各项活动时间的基础上,重点研究周期可变的产供销计划模型,并将其扩展到需求不确定的情况,最后把理论模型应用到石化产品的产供销计划中。具体而言,本文做了如下几个方面的工作：(1)在确定需求下,研究了周期可变的产供销计划问题,构建了周期可变的计划模型,通过算例分析证明,可变周期比固定周期更具成本优势；(2)在不确定需求下,分别构建了随机需求和模糊需求产供销计划模型,通过算例分析证明,可变周期比固定周期更具成本优势,且这种优势在不确定需求下更明显；(3)针对所建立的周期可变产供销计划模型(MINLP),开发了基于差分进化的粒子群算法(DE-PSO)进行求解；(4)针对吉林石化聚乙烯产品的产供销计划问题,本文运用了不确定需求下周期可变的产供销计划模型为其制定最优的产供销计划。本文研究的周期可变产供销计划模型是对产供销计划理论研究的有益补充,算例分析充分表明该模型的有效性与优势,案例应用则表明该模型对于实际的产供销计划问题具有很强的参考价值。更多还原

【Abstract】 There are two challenges in supply chain management, namely global optimization and uncertainty. Effectively coordination between members of the supply chain can successfully solve the two challenges. Supply-production-distribution plan is a powerful tool to achieve supply chain coordination. So it can realize the global optimization under uncertaintyThe traditional supply-production-distribution plan researches neglect the time dimension in supply-production-distribution. They haven’t divided activities in supply-production-distri-bution by time dimension. Especially, they suppose that supply-production-distribution cycle is constant. Based on the detailed analysis of the time dimension in supply-production-distribution, this paper mainly researches supply-production-distribution plan under variable cycle, extends it to the uncertain demand condition, and finally applies the theoretical model to the practice of the petrochemical products.Specifically, this paper fulfills the following tasks:(1) Under certain demand circumstance, researching supply-production-distribution planning problem with variable cycle, constructing the planning model, and illustrating that variable cycle is better than constant cycle by numerical example.(2) Under uncertain demand, according to stochastic demand and fuzzy demand, constructing planning model with variable cycle respectively. And illustrating that variable cycle is better than constant cycle by numerical example. What’s more, this advantage is more significant under uncertain demand than under certain demand.(3) Developing DE-PSO algorithm to solve the planning models(MINLP) which are constructed in this paper.(4) Applying supply-production-distribution plan model with variable cycle under uncertain demand to supply-production-distribution of Jilin Petrochemical’s PE product.The supply-production-distribution planning model with variable cycle based on DE-PSO algorithm research is a useful complement to the supply-production-distribution planning research. The analysis of numerical examples illustrates that the models in this paper are effective, and case study illustrates that the models can guide the supply-production-distribution practice.更多还原