【作者】 常乐；

【导师】 杨令宾；

【作者基本信息】 东北师范大学 ， 地图学与地理信息系统， 2011， 硕士

【摘要】 洪涝灾害是当今世界上发生频率较大、危害较严重的气象灾害之一。由于地处季风边缘的气候敏感地带,长白山地区属洪涝灾害发生较为频繁地区之一,所以若想减轻灾害带来的损失,对该地区进行有效的洪涝灾害预测预报就显得尤为重要。降雨是影响洪涝发生的最主要气象因素之一,若需掌握洪涝发生的规律,首先应掌握降雨量的分布规律。而由于各地的自然以及人文环境的不同,降雨量分布规律常常有所差别。本研究就是以长白山地区为研究范围,选取该地区的六个市县作为典型区对降雨量进行研究,分析这些地区的降雨量分布规律,得到降雨的分布型。关于水文分布型,大部分研究都选用Ⅲ型皮尔逊曲线模型和正态分布模型对降雨在时间空间上的分布进行模拟建模,本研究主旨在于从理论上找到适合长白山地区的降雨分布型,得出其最适模拟。我国是洪涝灾害多发的国家,每年基本都会发生洪涝灾害,洪涝灾害的发生不仅可能造成财产损失,严重的甚至会威胁人的生命安全,因此若可研究得出降雨分布型,进而得到一个地区的降雨规律,可对该地区的降雨进行预测预报,减轻灾害带来的损失。本研究首先利用了Risk Simulator软件的蒙特卡罗和分布拟合功能对所选取的各个地区进行了降雨量分布型的研究,在理论上找到各个地区的客观降雨量分布型,随后通过对分布型特征的进一步分析研究,对未来降雨量的变化范围做出预测。其次,因长白山地区所处地理位置因素,使得其降雨常常集中在夏季,而夏季暴雨一般为洪涝灾害的主导因素之一,因而夏季的暴雨对该地区洪涝灾害发生亦有着直接的影响。在整体的分布规律得出之后,本研究继续选用50年的降雨量数据,依灰色灾害预测模型和马尔可夫预测等模型对该区域夏季的降雨量以及暴雨发生情况进行了预测研究,并根据所得结果对可能发生的灾害年月进行预测分析,最后根据预测结果提出一些相关的减灾防灾方法。更多还原

【Abstract】 In recent, flood disaster is one of the meteorological disasters which are more bigger frequency and more harmful damage. Because it is in monsoon edge, Changbai Mountain region is belong to the area where the flood disaster occurs frequently. It is so important to have an effective flood disaster forecasting to reduce the loss of flood disasters in this region. Rainfall is one of the main factors which have the effect on flood disaster, so at first we should master the distribution laws of precipitation. Due to the different natural and cultural environment around, precipitation distribution often has different rules. This study’s research scope is Changbai Mountain region. Six counties is selected from this region as typical ares to study the precipitation distribution pattern. About researching on distribution pattern of the hydrology, most studies have used the Pearson typeⅢmodel curve model and the normal distribution as the precipitation distribution model in time and space’s simulation. This study is to find a suitable theoretical distribution pattern of precipitation in Changbai Mountain area, that is, find the best objective simulation.China is a country which is prone to floods. Basically, floods occur every year. Flood disasters may not only cause property damage and even threaten the human life. So if we can get the precipitation distribution patterns, then get the rule of a regional precipitation patterns we can do the prediction, that is to say, precipitation of these regions can be forecast, so it could mitigate the losses which caused by disasters.Firstly, by using the Risk Simulator’s the functions which are Monte Carlo and distribution fitting, this paper researches on the precipitation distribution pattern in each area,finding the most appropriate theoretical precipitation distribution pattern of each area. And further study on distribution law for forecasting future precipitation range. Because of geographic location factor, precipitation often concentrates in summer in Changbai Mountain region. In general, summer heavy rain is one of the dominant factors of flooding and in this area, summer heavy rain has a direct impact on causing the floods. Therefore, after getting the whole regularity of precipitation distribution, this study continues to research on forecasting the summer precipitation and heavy rain. With at least 50 years of precipitation data, based on the Grey Disaster Forecasting Model and Markov Forecast Model, this study forecasts the possible time when the flood will happen. Finally, based on the result, puts forward some suggestion on how to prevention and reduction the flood disaster.更多还原