渝东北人口承载力研究

【作者】 李阳东；

【导师】 蒲奇军；

【作者基本信息】 重庆工商大学 ， 区域经济学， 2011， 硕士

【摘要】 渝东北以三峡库区为主体,包括11个区县.虽然自重庆直辖以来,渝东北地区在环境、经济和社会发展方面取得了不小的成就,但总体发展水平仍然不高:渝东北地区仍有大片的贫困地区,人多地少,生态环境问题突出,经济、社会总体指标仍处于重庆下游水平。这些问题归根结底是由于脆弱的环境承载了过多的人口,因此引导超载人口有序转移成为渝东北可持续发展的重要保障。为了实现渝东北地区的人口、资源、环境与经济、社会的可持续发展,根据渝东北的发展水平和发展潜力,合理的计算渝东北地区人口承载力成为实现地区可持续发展战略的重要内容。本文根据重庆市人民政府对渝东北地区作为限制开发区的功能定位,通过统计资料中的相关数据,对渝东北11个区县(包括万州区、梁平县、城口县、丰都县、垫江县、忠县、开县、云阳县、奉节县、巫山县、巫溪县)的人口、资源、环境、经济社会的发展现状,所存在的问题与发展趋势进行了归纳总结。并选取了十一个具有代表性的资源、环境、经济和社会发展指标,通过与各区县的常住人口进行相关性分析,得到与常住人口数相关程度最高的三个指标,分别为耕地面积、全社会固定资产投资和教育支出。通过建立回归模型与适度人口公式,以目前重庆现在人口数为合理基数,计算得出渝东北各区县的适度人口。通过对人口状况进行静态和动态的分析,结果表明与将来渝东北地区都面临严重的人口超载问题,并分析了影响各区县人口承载力的因素。根据限制开发区的要求,提出了要提高渝东北资源承载力、经济承载力、社会承载力,必须要通过保护耕地资源,完善粮食市场;控制人口增长速度;引导超载人口向承载能力大的一圈地区流动并有条件的发展小城镇;加大社会固定资产投资力度;发展生态农业和集约化的规模农业;加强基础设施建设;加强渝东北地区的教育力度;加强社会医疗保障体系等能有效提高渝东北人口承载力的政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Chongqing northeast economic region with the Three Gorges Reservoir area as its main body, includes 11 districts and counties. Since becoming a municipality, Chongqing has got a great achievement in environment, economic and social development, but the overall development levels are barely satisfactory. We cannot deny the fact that the economic and social whole index is still in the downstream level of Chongqing, since there are still some problems severely like mass poverty-stricken areas, much population and little land and ecological environmental problems. In the final analysis, the fragile environment carrying excessive population takes the main responsibility for those problems, and hence to guide the surplus population transfer orderly becomes the important guarantee for its sustainable development. In order to realize the subtainable development of the area in aspects of population, natural resources, environment, economy and society, calculating reasonably the population capacity of Chongqing northeast area according to the development level and potential of Chongqing becomes an important part of its sustainable development strategy.According to the functional localization identified by Chongqing government bout a the northeast of Chongqing as a restricted zone, and the statistics of relevant data, this thesis gives a summary involving the existing problems, development trend and status quo of population, resources, environment, economy and society in its 11 counties clued WanZhoudistrict,liangpingCounty,hengKouCounty,FengDouXianCounty,DianJiangXian County, zhongxian County, kaixian county, YunYang County, FengJie County, wushan, WuXi County ) Besides, this thesis makes a relevant analysis about the data of its very permanent population and the eleven representative index in resources,environment, the economy and society development, and finally draws three high-value index: gricultural acreage, whole-society fixed capital investments and education outcomes. Through a as astablishing return model and appropriate population formula,the appropriate population of districts and counties of Chongqing northeast is calculated according to the logical of radix which is based on the present population of Chongqing.Through analyzing the condition of population from static and dynamic aspects, it is showed that the northeast area of Chongqing is facing severe problem of the surplus populaton. The thesis also analyzes the factors that influence the population capacity of each districts and courties. According to the needs of the restricted zone, the following politics suggestions can be used to enhance the bearing capabilities of resources, economics and society: protecting the resource for cultivatin; improving the grain market;controlling population growth rate; guiding the surplus population to live in the“one circle”district with huge bearing capacility and developing townlet with suitable condition; intensifying social fixed capital investments; developing the ecological agriculture and intensive cultivation; enhancing the construction of infrastructure facilities, the education power of the area and the basic medical insurance of the society.更多还原