【作者】 祝晓庆；

【导师】 卢小丽；

【作者基本信息】 大连理工大学 ， 技术经济及管理， 2011， 硕士

【摘要】 2010年,中国以49.68%的城镇化率步入城市化高速发展阶段,预计到2015年中国城镇化率达到52%,2030年将达到65%左右。虽然中国城镇化率与国外发达国家平均78%的城镇化率水平相比并不高,但目前中国却以能源消耗世界第二、二氧化碳排放量世界第一的国家形象立于全世界。中国科学院可持续发展战略研究组的研究表明,中国经济城镇的GDP中,至少有18%是依靠资源和生态环境的“透支”而获取的。在城市化趋势不可逆转的形势下,如何有效利用能源、协调城市化与能源消耗二者之间关系的研究还处于萌芽阶段,尤其是我国目前还没有建立起完整的城市化与能源消费相互作用的分析体系。鉴于此,本研究以城市化进程中的能源消耗为研究对象,以揭示城市化与能源消耗的关系为研究目的,在理清中国城市化与能源消耗现状的基础上,选取1995-2010年全国以及各省市城市化与能源消耗数据,建立基于计量经济理论的城市化与能源消耗关系的响应机制模型。采用动态计量分析与面板数据模型相结合的方法,验证城市化与能源消耗的响应机制,揭示城市化与能源消耗的内在规律与发展趋势,探讨区域差异对城市化与能源消耗关系的影响,为研究各省市城市化发展与能源消耗之间的协调发展提供一种思路。本文从人口、社会、经济、空间四个维度构建了综合城市化指标,采用熵权法计算城市化指标权重,将标准化的指标值与各指标权重相乘得出城市化综合指数。研究结果表明：(1)从全国层面,人口城市指标(城市化率)相比较城市化综合指数指标对能源消耗的增长促进作用较大,城市化率、综合城市化的发展主要受自身波动的影响,能源消耗对二者发展的贡献度较小。目前,煤炭资源对城市化的发展起重要作用,长远看,电力消耗对城市化的未来发展的促进作用较大。(2)从各省市区域层面,在城市化的发展过程中,人口集聚程度、投资水平、消费水平、医疗水平、交通网络、城市建设六个方面成为主导能源消耗的主要作用因素。(3)从区域差异角度分析：东部、中部、西部地区,城市化指标对能源消耗的影响程度不同。其中,交通网络、城市建设是影响东部中部西部地区城市化与能源消耗关系的共同因素。综合论文的研究成果,本文对中国未来城市化发展提出了走可持续发展的城市化道路,提升公众低碳认知水平,改善民生增加社会福祉,提高能源利用效率等建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 In 2010,49.68% urbanization rate stepped into the high speed development stage in China. The urbanization rate will reach 52% in 2015 and it will reach 65% in 2030. Although the urbanization rate of China is under average 78% of urbanization rate of developed countries, the energy consumption is the second in the world, and carbon dioxide emissions is the first in the world. The study of the sustainable development strategy research group shows that more than 18% of GDP in town economy depends on the resources and ecological environment.At present, our country has not set up the complete interaction system between urbanization and the energy consumption. It is still in its infancy to effectively use the energy and coordinate the relationship between the urbanization and the energy consumption. So the paper puts energy consumption in the process of urbanization as the research object and takes the data of urbanization and energy consumption of the provinces and cities in 1995-2010 to construct the response mechanism model for the relationship between urbanization and energy consumption. The paper used the validation method of dynamic measurement analysis and panel data model to event handle response mechanism of urbanization and the energy consumption, which could show the inherent law and development trend of urbanization and the energy consumption, and discuss the regional differences affect the relationship between urbanization and the energy consumption, which could point out certain theoretical support for coordination development of urbanization and energy consumption.The empirical results show that:the urbanization rate compared to composite Index of Urbanization, which is a great role to promote the energy consumption. The development of the urbanization rate and composite Index of Urbanization are mainly on their own fluctuations. At present, the coal resource plays an important role in the development of urbanization, and in the long run, power consumption promotes the future development of urbanization. From the provinces and cities aspect, the level of population, investment, consumption level, medical treatment, transportation network, and urban construction in China plays the key role in China’s energy consumption factor. In the differences, the indicators of urbanization and energy consumption in the eastern, central and western China are in different influence degree. The transportation network and urban construction are the common factors among the western, central, eastern regions. Finally, according to the above conclusions, this paper proposes several laws of development of urbanization for China and other suggestions for promoting human resources quality, pay attention to the livelihood, intensive use resources and improve the energy efficiency.更多还原