【作者】 任敏；

【导师】 李明顺；

【作者基本信息】 长沙理工大学 ， 交通运输规划与管理， 2011， 硕士

【摘要】 在市场经济条件下,公路资产作为一类特殊的资产已经进入市场,越来越多的非公有资本参与公路项目的建设与运营。这些国内外经济组织成立专门的项目公司从建设期到特许经营期结束这段时间对公路项目进行管理,主要以获得经济利益为目的。但是在实际运作过程中,很多项目公司会因为种种内在或外在的原因导致财务亏损,本文就如何最大限度降低项目公司的亏损,同时提高社会效益的问题提出了一个解决思路,即在特许经营期尚未结束的时候,政府给予项目公司一定的经济补偿,项目公司将收费经营权归还国家,公路由政府交通主管部门统一经营管理。这个解决问题的方法中,资产转让价值的确定成为了一个关键问题,它关系到政府和项目公司双方利益的博弈,以及这个方法是否能够顺利实施。本论文分析了经营性公路资产特点及特许经营项目的风险,提出了能使政府和项目公司尽量达到双赢的一个思路;进行了经营性公路二人讨价还价博弈的基本设定和要素分析,进而构建了一个二人讨价还价合作博弈模型,研究了模型的K-S求解方法;论文还对合作博弈模型中的几个重要参数进行了量化研究,包括特许经营期内远景交通流量预测方法、项目公司亏损值的计算方法和项目社会效益的计算方法。通过这些方法的研究来解决政府究竟补偿多少的问题。论文最后通过实证分析,进行了经营性公路资产转让价值的计算,验证了方法和模型的实用性和正确性。论文研究成果为解决经营性公路资产转让问题提供了一个新思路和新方法,这些理论、模型与方法具有一定的理论和实践价值。更多还原

【Abstract】 Under the condition of market economy, highway asset as a kind of special assets has entered the market, more and more non-public capital participates in the construction and operation of highway project. These domestic and foreign economic organizations set up a special project company to manage highway project from construction to the end of charter period, mainly for the purpose of economic benefits. But in actual operation process, a lot of project companies have financial losses because of a variety of internal or external cause. This paper puts forward a solution for how to minimize the project company losses and improve the social benefit, the solution is that the government gives a certain economic compensation to the project company when the concession period hasn’t finished, the project company gives franchise back to the government, and state transportation departments unified management highway.In the solution to the problems, the determination of the assets transferring value becomes a key issues, it is linked to the interest game between the government and the project company, and whether the method of the game can be smooth implemented. This paper analyzes the characteristics of the profit-making highway asset and risks of franchising project, puts forward a train of thought which can make the government and the project companies try to achieve win-win; It gives some two-person bargain game basic settings and factor analysis for the profit-making highway, and then builds a two-person bargain game model, researches the K-S solution of the model; This paper also does the quantitative research of several important parameters in the cooperative game theory model, including franchise period traffic flow forecasting methods, calculation method of company’s losses value and calculation method of project’s social benefits. Through the research of these methods, this paper solves the problem that the government how to compensate.Finally, this paper takes the profit-making highway asset transfer value calculation through empirical analysis, verifies the practicability and validity of the method and model. This paper’s research results provides a new thinking and new methods for solving profit-making highway asset transfer. These theories, model and methods have certain theoretical and practical value.更多还原