【作者】 许春青；

【导师】 王滨生；

【作者基本信息】 哈尔滨工程大学 ， 结构工程， 2011， 硕士

【摘要】 我国是滑坡频发的国家,每年由于滑坡灾害造成的生命财产损失非常巨大。滑坡作为一种十分严重与普遍的全球性自然灾害,已经成为一个不可忽视的大难题。滑坡预测预报对滑坡的预防治理有着重要的指导意义,是减轻滑坡灾害所造成损失的最有效方法与途径之一,因此,进行滑坡预测预报的研究具有非常重要的工程价值与意义。在广泛阅读文献的基础上,本文对滑坡灾害及其预测预报的理论与方法进行了系统的比较分析与总结综述。首先在分析滑坡形成机理、孕育发展演变特性的基础上,对滑坡系统的影响因素与类型进行了系统地归纳分类。其次,通过对滑坡预测预报详细地分析研究,总结得出了滑坡预测预报程序。依据当前滑坡预测预报模型的发展阶段,阐述了各模型的建模理论,分析得出了模型的适用范围和优缺点,并对预测预报模型进行了归纳分类,得出了模型分类统计表。最后,结合我国典型的甘肃省永靖县黄茨滑坡实例,基于确定性灰色GM(1,1)预测预报模型与非确定性协同预测预报模型,进行了详细的算例比较分析。更多还原

【Abstract】 China is a landslide-prone country, and landslide has caused enormous losses of life and property every year. Landslide as a very serious and widespread global natural disaster, has become a major problem which can not be ignored. Landslide forecasting and prediction is one of the most effective methods and ways to reduce losses, which has important guiding significance for the prevention and management of landslides, therefore, forecasting and prediction of landslides has a very important engineering value and significance.In the thesis, the theories and methods of landslide hazard forecasting and prediction have been systematically reviewed on the basis of extensive reading. Firstly, on the basis of the formation mechanism and the nature development of evolutionary processes, the influencing factors and the types of landslide have been summarized and classified, systematically. Secondly, on the basis of the research of landslide forecasting and prediction, the program of landslide forecasting and prediction has been obtained. Based on the current development of the landslide forecasting and prediction, the modeling theory of models of landslide forecasting and prediction has been described after a series of systematic research and analysis, moreover, the applications and advantages/disadvantages of each model have been summed up.7The models have been categorized and obtained the model classification tables. Finally, using the material of the typical HuangCi Landslide Example (in YongJing County, GanSu Province, China), on the basis of the deterministic grey GM (1,1) model and non-deterministic synergy model, the comparative analysis results have been given by the numerical example.更多还原