【作者】 金汝蕾；

【导师】 田立新；

【作者基本信息】 江苏大学 ， 系统工程， 2011， 硕士

【摘要】 改革开放后,中国的经济迅猛发展,对能源的需求也日益增长,这使得碳排放量的增长越来越快。自2000年以来,全球CO2排放2/3的增加量来自中国,中国CO2排放量已经成为全世界共同关注的热点话题。中国作为碳排放大国,研究中国的碳排放问题具有十分重要的意义,有利于中国的可持续发展。本文从碳排放现状出发,利用最小二乘法和回归分析法,建立了一种新的碳排放动态演化模型,从动力系统角度研究碳排放的演化趋势,对中国碳排放进行中长期的预测。第三章基于长三角能耗现状,利用非线性函数和回归分析,研究长三角地区近年来的碳排放总量,并在此基础上进一步对其进行演化分析,预测这一地区未来中长期的碳排放走势。第四章从碳排放现状出发,采用最小二乘拟合方法,建立了碳排放演化动力系统,引入碳排放动态演化因子和演化推进率,提出了碳排放演化相关的碳排放变化趋势定理、碳排放演化定理等。进一步通过调控演化系数和临界时间引入碳排放动态演化模型和演化情景分析,对中国未来的碳排放趋势进行预测和演化分析。第五章基于动态演化系统理论,引入煤炭碳排放演化动态系统,对未来煤炭的能源消耗总量和产生的碳排放进行预测分析。同时引入四种不同的煤炭碳排放情景,进行演化分析,量化分析中国未来煤炭产生的碳排放趋势,最后提出结论和相应的措施。更多还原

【Abstract】 Because of China’s foreign trade, China’s economic has a growth stage. The demand of energy has a significant growth, which makes China’s carbon emissions began rapid growth. About two-thirds of increment of carbon dioxide emissions around world comes from China after 2000. China’s carbon dioxide emissions have been one of the hottest problems in the world. As the big country of carbon emissions, it is very significant to analyze China’s carbon emissions, which is advantageous to China’s sustainable development.Based on the present situation of the carbon emissions in China, a new dynamic evolutionary model of carbon emissions evolution is established by using the nonlinear least-square method and regression analysis method. Besides, this paper explores dynamic evolution rules of of carbon emissions from the angle of dynamic system, which predicts the long-term carbon emissions in China.In Chapter three, based on the present situation of carbon emissions in Yangtze Delta, this chapter builds a nonlinear dynamic system model is established by using the nonlinear method and regression analysis method. In addition, we discuss and evolutionary analyze on the total carbon emissions in Yangtze Delta by using the dynamic system model. Finally, this chapter predicts the long-term carbon emissions evolutionary trend in this area.In Chapter four, based on the status quo of carbon emissions in China, least-square method is used to establish the dynamic evolutionary system of carbon emissions. This chapter introduces dynamic evolutionary factors, advance rate of carbon emissions, deducing relative theories, such as Change Trends Theorem and Evolutionary Theorem. Furthermore, the dynamic evolutionary model is introduced and evolutionary scenario analysis is also conducted by modulating evolutionary coefficient and critical time. Based on the above observations, carbon emissions of China are predicted and evolutionary analyzed.In Chapter five, based on the study of dynamic systems, a model of dynamic evolutionary system of carbon emissions due to coal is introduced, in order to predict coal consumption and carbon emissions due to coal. Furthermore, four scenarios of carbon emissions due to coal are introduced and evolutionary analyzed, quantizing analysis of china’s future carbon emissions due to coal. At last, the corresponding conclusion and measures are put forward in this chapter.更多还原